Bold predictions as the Colorado Avalanche head into the second half

Goodness, it’s been eight days since the Colorado Avalanche last took the ice on Jan. 20 in a 6-3 win over the hated Detroit Red Wings, and there’s still four days left until they’re back at it again.

But, with the All-Star Game festivities wrapped up in St. Louis, it’s time to turn our attention to the second half of the NHL slate with some bold predictions for this Avs team as it marches, hopefully, toward a postseason berth.

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Nathan MacKinnon wins the Hart Memorial Trophy

Last week, the Professional Hockey Writers Association named it’s 2019-’20 midseason award winners, with the Avalanche unsurprisingly racking up some hardware — Joe Sakic taking home the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award and defenseman Cale Makar winning the Calder Memorial Trophy.

It’s not a stretch to see Sakic as the league’s top GM and Makar as its best rookie by any means, nor is Nathan MacKinnon coming in runner up behind Connor McDavid for the Hart Memorial Trophy (Side note: That’s the best trophy names in all of professional sports). In fact, MacKinnon was slated to win the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy, given to the “player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability.”

But it’s not likely the Lady Byng will satisfy MacKinnon, who’s come up short in league MVP voting the past two seasons. This year, MacKinnon will usurp McDavid — who already has an MVP of his own — to win his first Hart Trophy, flying in the face of the usually very accurate PHWA predictions.

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Colorado does not deal for a goaltender

While the goaltending tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz doesn’t necessarily send Avs fans into euphoria, the pair has been fairly good in net compared to the rest of the NHL.

Colorado, as a team, ranks eighth in save percentage (.910) and 10th in goals against. And while names like Jonathan Quick, Henrik Lundqvist and Carey Price have been floated as possible trade targets, Grubauer and Francouz have delivered better than all three this season.

Francouz and Grubauer rank 14th and 35th in save percentage (.924 and .910), respectively, while Price, Lundqvist and Quick come in 39th (.909), 42nd (.907) and 62nd (.896). The Avs pair also leads the trio in goals against average, coming in 13th and 29th, respectively, among the rest of the NHL.

With the tandem of Francouz and Grubauer more efficient than Quick, Lundqvist or Price, the Avs trading for one of the three doesn’t fully compute.

Unless …

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The Avs are a first-round out in the Stanley Cup Playoffs

If Colorado opts to stay put at goaltender, they’ll head into the postseason with little playoff experience in net.

Comparatively, Price, Quick and Lundqvist have 60, 85 and 128 games experience in the playoffs while Grubauer has just 16 games. Francouz has none.

On top of inexperience between the pipes, Colorado suffers from other important team afflictions: special teams and late-game poise.

The Avs rank in the bottom third in the league in both penalty kill and power play efficiency, ranking 20th (79.05 percent) and 21st (18.64 percent), respectively.

While Colorado leads the league with 28 games while leading heading into the third period, the Avalanche have suffered a handful of gut-wrenching late-game collapses at home this season. While the team’s 23-1-4 record with a lead after two periods isn’t necessarily a concern, however, its marks while trailing or with the game tied seem to be.

With the game all square heading into the third, the Avs have posted a 5-4-1 record, including a 3-2-1 mark at Pepsi Center. What’s perhaps worse, however, is they’re the only team in the NHL without a win while trailing heading into the final period, going 0-10-1.

This is a young, gritty team that has deep postseason aspirations. But if they don’t clean some things up, it’ll be a short spring.

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