Expert NBA picks: Panel fails Nuggets’ offseason, most see second-round exit

Last season was the Nuggets' worst playoff finish with a healthy Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray so what does this year have in store for Denver's hoopers?

BY JAKE SHAPIRO

Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 AM

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Watch: 5 questions that could shape the Denver Nuggets’ season | Shapiro and Piro | 34 mins

The Denver Nuggets open the 2026-27 season Thursday at Oklahoma City, two days after the NBA season tips off Tuesday.

Last season was the Nuggets’ worst playoff finish with a healthy Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The duo had never been knocked out in the first round. So where did Denver go from there? It had an offseason in which most of the core stayed the same, but the supporting cast was overhauled.

The question went from whether the Nuggets are the best team in the league to whether they can even compete for a championship, and it happened fast. This regular season will go a long way toward showing who this team is and who its most important players are.

Here are our answers, and sometimes (educated) guesses, to the big questions around the Nuggets.

We asked Nuggets analyst Jake Shapiro, social media guru Aniello Piro, Denver Sports’ Will Petersen and Joey Freeburg, and Josh Dover, host of “Dover and Cecil,” for their expert picks on the season ahead. Over the next seven questions, the group looks at where the Nuggets’ season could go wrong and who will come out on top in the NBA this year.

Here’s what Denver Sports and 104.3 The Fan’s Nuggets voices have to say.

Nuggets record prediction and playoff future

Dover: 51-31, lose in the Western Conference finals
Freeburg: 53-29, lose in the second round
Petersen: 48-34, lose in the second round
Piro: 52-30, lose in the second round
Shapiro: 50-32, lose in the second round

Grade the Nuggets’ offseason and explain why

Dover: D-
It’s fitting, because the only thing they did that will help is add DeMar DeRozan. They caved and gave Peyton Watson what he wanted rather than making him play on the qualifying offer! They caved to a guy who had no leverage!

Freeburg: C
The Nuggets didn’t use their depth enough in the playoffs last year when it mattered, and it led to their defeat. They added what could be key depth pieces in DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III and Alpha Diallo, along with rookie Trevon Brazile, who has looked solid in the preseason. However, they lost Tim Hardaway Jr., who was arguably their most serviceable bench piece next to Peyton Watson, whom they also lost, along with backup big man Jonas Valanciunas. The Nuggets did just enough to keep winning regular-season games and finish with a top-four seed in the West, but not enough to get back to the NBA Finals.

Petersen: F
They didn’t get any better around Nikola Jokic. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown were convenient distractions, but ultimately the only notable thing they did was let Peyton Watson leave town. That’s failing a superstar.

Piro: C-
They really didn’t do much to improve, but they made some intriguing additions that could pay off during the season. I’m willing to be optimistic about the bench.

Shapiro: F
The Nuggets couldn’t do the most important thing on their agenda: get Nikola Jokic extended. They also couldn’t accomplish what they called their top priority: keeping Peyton Watson. They watched one of the better bench units of this era break up and replaced those pieces with a lot of question marks, though some are intriguing. Ball handling, perimeter defense and rebounding remain concerns, and now shooting is one, too. It’s hard to imagine a worse offseason, yet the Nuggets still have options that could make up a solid bench. The starting five remains, but after that playoff exit, are we sure it’s still one of the three best in the league, let alone the best?

Who is the X-factor for this Nuggets season and why?

Dover: Jamal Murray is still a big X-factor for me, but I believe what I saw last year is who he is now. So the X-factor is Aaron Gordon’s body, and it scares me. Have we seen the best of AG? I hope not, but I fear we have.

Freeburg: Aaron Gordon. Last season, Gordon played in only 39 games, including three in the playoffs. When he’s healthy, Gordon brings a strong defensive presence and pairs so well with Nikola Jokic that opposing teams can’t game-plan for it. When he’s off the court, the Nuggets look lost. He is by far the most important player on the roster not named Nikola Jokic.

Petersen: Health. If the Nuggets stay healthy, and that’s a massive if, they could reach the Western Conference finals or go further. I just don’t see it happening.

Piro: Cam Johnson. We know what to expect from Nikola and Jamal. AG will probably be in and out of the lineup this season. The best version of the Nuggets this season includes a bounce-back year from Johnson. They need him to be the team’s third-best player to reach their potential.

Shapiro: I like my colleagues’ picks and mostly agree, but I’ll offer Spencer Jones. What if he takes yet another leap? He’s essential as Aaron Gordon’s backup, he’s one of the team’s best defenders and his shooting can provide spacing. He’ll be asked to do a lot, and he’s the highest-paid bench player expected to play. His Game 5 performance should give some belief that there might be more scoring there than people think.

Which Western Conference team should worry the Nuggets most?

Dover: It’s still Minnesota. The Timberwolves punked them, they own them, and until proven otherwise, the Nuggets owe the Wolves their lunch money!

Freeburg: The San Antonio Spurs. After losing in the NBA Finals last year, they’re out for blood. Victor Wembanyama, entering his fourth season, could be the most dangerous player in the league. The Thunder and Timberwolves will be tough, but the Spurs have proven that right now, they’re the ones to beat.

Petersen: Flip a coin between the Spurs and Thunder. They’re both scary, and both better than Denver.

Piro: It’s still the Thunder, with an honorable mention to the Timberwolves, of course. I’m not sure the Nuggets have an answer for Oklahoma City’s physicality.

Shapiro: It’s the Thunder. They’ve had the Nuggets’ number since beating Denver in Game 7 of the second round in 2025. Oklahoma City has risen as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken Jokic’s crown, winning back-to-back MVP awards. The Thunder did collapse in Game 7 against the Spurs, and that could linger, and in the offseason they got worse in an area that really hurt Denver. But they still have waves of bodies and a way of defending Jokic that has bothered him as much as, if not more than, any other team in the league.

What do you expect from David Adelman this year?

Dover: To get fired!

Freeburg: Honestly, not much. Hopefully he learned how to coach this team through the adversity it faced last year with all its injuries. If he could lead an injured roster to the third seed last year, he should do much better with a healthy team this year.

Petersen: That he might be looking for a new job come January, or sooner. Oh, and he’ll fight with the media and puff out his chest a bunch in news conferences. Not so much when he’s actually coaching.

Piro: Good offense. I wonder how deep he’ll go into the bench. He’ll be similar to last year.

Shapiro: I expect stiff competition for rotation roles. I expect a better defensive system at times, along with more attention to resting players and taking nights off. It won’t look pretty at times, but I do think Adelman learned from last year. The question is whether he’ll feel comfortable trying some of his really smart experiments, which sometimes don’t work, while his seat is still sizzling from last spring.

Will this be Nikola Jokic’s final season in Denver?

Dover: No. Love you, Jake, but this is a stupid question!

Freeburg: No. He’ll sign a new contract with Denver after this season. When that contract ends, though, he’ll probably retire and go back to Serbia, and we’ll never hear from him again.

Petersen: No. He’s signing the massive extension next summer and finishing his career with the Nuggets. It’s 90% certain now rather than 100%, though.

Piro: No. Next question.

Shapiro: No. I would be stunned if he were traded or left in free agency next summer. I believe what Jokic has said; he is not a dishonest person. Even though we all agree he’s not going anywhere, the question is worth asking because it will shape so much of the Nuggets conversation this year. It’s worth remembering that the local media is taking Jokic at his word that he’ll sign an extension next summer.

Who will win the NBA championship?

Dover: Spurs over Cavaliers in five
Freeburg: Pistons over Timberwolves in six
Petersen: 76ers over Spurs in seven
Piro: Spurs over Celtics in six
Shapiro: Thunder over Celtics in six