Courtland Sutton could see his third-down target share cut dramatically

Courtland Sutton was one of the most-dependable players in the NFL last season. Not in the flashy, highlight-reel way that generates national attention. In the grinding, chain-moving, keep-the-drive-alive way that wins football games in November through January.

When the Broncos needed a first down, Bo Nix looked in one direction. And Sutton was almost always standing there waiting for the football.

The numbers tell the story clearly. Nix targeted Sutton 51 times on third down last season, and Sutton hauled in 28 of those passes. The next two closest players in third-down targets were Troy Franklin and Evan Engram, each with 25.

That gap is significant. It means that on the most critical down in football, the Broncos were running a disproportionate amount of their offense through a single receiver. And while Sutton delivered, his reliability in those moments was one of the reasons Denver went 14-3, Cecil Lammey believes the model needs to change.

On a recent edition of “Dover and Cecil” on 104.3 The Fan, the co-host laid out the case for why this season’s third-down approach should look fundamentally different.

“Every time it’s a third down, Courtland’s getting the ball. They need to change that,” Lammey said.

He then pointed to the reason the change is now possible.

“That’s where the new acquisitions, the new talent, like a Jaylen Waddle, will help change that,” Lammey said.

The addition of Waddle, the continued growth of Pat Bryant at training camp, and Troy Franklin entering his third year as a more complete receiver, all create options that simply didn’t exist a year ago. When Nix drops back on third-and-seven this season, the defensive coordinator on the other side can no longer shade coverage toward Sutton and dare someone else to beat them.

Waddle demands respect over the top. Bryant has been winning contested catches all camp. Franklin already proved he can produce at the NFL level. The menu has expanded.

Lammey projected what the redistribution could realistically look like.

“The number for Sutton is half. Because that’s the impact you’ll see on third down from Jaylen Waddle,” Lammey said.

Cutting Sutton’s third-down targets roughly in half sounds alarming on the surface. But in context, it means the Broncos are no longer leaning on one player to carry the most important conversions of every game. It means the offense is harder to defend. It means Nix has options rather than a predetermined answer.

Lammey closed with the broader philosophical point.

“Relying on Sutton this heavily is not a good thing. He had to last year, but again, last year’s dead. This year, I don’t want him relying on Sutton as heavily,” Lammey said.

That’s the healthy version of the argument. Nobody is saying Sutton can’t do it. He proved he can. But asking him to do it again, at the same volume, with the same defensive attention, in a receiver room that now has significantly more firepower, would be a failure to adapt.

The Broncos built this roster to be deeper and more dangerous at the skill positions. The third-down approach should reflect that investment.

Sutton will still be a critical piece of the offense. He will still make clutch catches on critical downs. But if the Broncos are doing this right, those catches will come against softer coverage, in more favorable situations, with less defensive attention, because the rest of the room is finally good enough to demand its share of the workload.

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