Broncos surging, but what has happened to other teams like them?

The Denver Broncos have plenty of reasons to not necessarily feel good just yet … but to feel like they’re headed in the right direction.

They have their second winning streak of at least 3 games in the last 12 months — which is as many such runs as they had in the previous 6 years, a stretch extending from Week 3 of the 2017 campaign through Week 5 of last year’s season. They’re 10-7 in their last 17 games, the type of ledger that if accomplished in a single season, would usually earn a playoff ticket.

And for the first time in Broncos history, they’ve turned an 0-2 start into a winning record after 5 games. Denver and Baltimore both reversed their 0-2 opening fortnights into winning records after five weeks, accomplishing something that has happened, on average, less than once per year since the AFL-NFL merger.

The Broncos and Ravens became the 33rd and 34th teams since 1970 to launch a 3-game winning streak immediately after an 0-2 start. The national perception of both ledgers appears to be divergent; the Ravens are widely acclaimed to be doing what they were supposed to do all along, while doubt lingers around the Broncos despite a pair of road wins and a defense that has yielded an average of 11.8 points per game in the last four weeks — and 11.3 points during the 3-game winning streak.

The history of the other 32 teams since the merger to start a season like Denver and Baltimore is mixed.

• 10 of 32 (31.3 percent) made the playoffs
• 13 of 32 (40.6 percent) finished with winning seasons
• 14 of 32 (43.8 percent) had losing seasons

So, there’s little to glean there.

The average per-17 game record of those 32 teams is just about as down the middle as you can get: 8.53 wins and 8.47 losses. Recent trends have been on the downswing; since 2015, teams with starts like Denver’s this year have averaged 7.58 wins and 9.42 losses per 17 games.

The recent trends are not promising, but there’s a catch:

1

Number of teams since 2015 that won three consecutive games after an 0-2 start and went on to make the playoffs. The other seven who opened 3-2 following an 0-2 start all missed out on the postseason, and six of those seven failed to post a winning record.

So, who’s the exception? It’s a team coached by Sean Payton, the 2017 New Orleans Saints. They started the campaign 0-2 after three consecutive 7-9 finishes. They won not only their subsequent three games — but eight in a row before finally falling to the Los Angeles Rams. New Orleans finished 11-5, won the NFC South and defeated Carolina in the playoffs before being eliminated on the Minneapolis Miracle.

Now, those Saints had an accomplished, Hall-of-Fame-bound quarterback. Considerably less clarity exists regarding Bo Nix’s outlook — which is understandable five weeks into his tenure as Broncos quarterback.

But Nix’s work pleased Payton, and the first-round pick he did something unique in Broncos history during the 34-18 win Sunday …

0

Number of times in Broncos history prior to Sunday that a rookie quarterback had posted a game with at least 2 touchdown passes, a touchdown run and no interceptions.

For all that, of course, Nix received a mystifying 26.8 QBR from ESPN for his work on Sunday, his lowest single-game figure of the season and 19.9 points lower than the figure compiled by Las Vegas quarterback Gardner Minshew, who threw two interceptions — including the ghastly lollipop that Pat Surtain corralled and returned 100 yards for the touchdown that launched a 34-0 Broncos sprint.

23

Number of games prior to Sunday in which Javonte Williams did not reach 100 yards from scrimmage. While Williams did not match his rushing tally of the previous week — finishing with 61 yards on 13 attempts against Las Vegas — his 50 yards in receptions were the most recorded by the fourth-year running back in a single game since he had 65 yards on 11 catches in the Sep. 12, 2022 loss at Seattle.

Williams has 191 yards from scrimmage in the last two games. That represents 95.5-yard average that far exceeds his career pace of 67.2 yards from scrimmage per game — as well as his average of 59.5 yards from scrimmage per game from his return to the field last year through the 26-7 win at Tampa Bay on Sep. 22.

It’s no wonder that Williams flexed in celebration Sunday.

“I’d be seeing everything that people be saying. I’ll be hearing all that,” Williams said. “So, I mean, I had to let them know, you feel me?”

Javonte Williams, on the flex he did at the end of one of his big runs Sunday: “Yeah, I mean, that was just like I said, I’d be seeing everything that people be saying. I’ll be hearing all that. So, I mean, I had to let them know, you feel me?” pic.twitter.com/KmleEb4nOf

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 7, 2024