Nikola Jokic opens as co-favorite to win fourth NBA MVP

If oddsmakers are right, Nikola Jokic will join five of the greatest basketball players of all time and win a fourth NBA MVP in the coming 2024-25 NBA season.

Only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James have won the award four or more times. That list of five is arguably the ranking of the five greatest hoopers ever, and Jokic is the o-favorite to join that list.

The odds that were released just after the Boston Celtics won an 18th title on Monday night have Jokic as a co-favorite with Luka Doncic amongst a group of common foes that have competed for the NBA’s top individual honor of the past several seasons.

NBA MVP opening odds:

Nikola Jokic: +380
Luka Doncic: +380
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +550
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +550
Joel Embiid: +550
Anthony Edwards: +1500
Jayson Tatum: +1900
Jalen Brunson: +2000
Victor Wembanyama: +3500

The odds heading into next season are similar but not the exact same as the finishing order to this year’s race. That saw Jokic finish ahead of—in order—SGA, Doncic, Giannis and Brunson. Embiid didn’t meet the minimum games played requirement to defend the MVP he won in 2023, while many project young players like Ant and Wemby to have outstanding seasons for next year’s race.

In 2023-24, Jokic was his steady self all of the regular season and improved after the All-Star Break where Denver sped to a 21-6 record, all while Jamal Murray missed a solid chunk of time. Jokic averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and nine assists a game on 58% shooting, good for league bests in Player Efficiency Rating (31,) Win Shares (17,) Box Plus-Minus (13.2) and Value Over Replacement Player (10.6.)

Playing 79 games, the most he’s played during his three MVP run over four seasons, Michael Malone admitted he may have pushed his players a bit too hard during the regular season which led to the team’s early postseason exit. However, he also said he felt Jokic was the lone exception and that his star big did not tire in the playoffs. Going into the offseason one of the Nuggets keys is getting Jokic both more help in terms of others producing and stronger options behind him at center to take some minutes off of his legs.

Jokic’s legs will be taxed this summer again, as he’s on Serbia’s roster for the Olympics in Paris. Frankly, it seems crazy to think Jokic will win yet another MVP given he’s completely disinterested in the award and it feels like the Nuggets will not focus on the regular season this coming year. At the same time, many here in Denver would tell you it’s even crazier that a three-time MVP calls the Mile High City home and nobody has come close to dispatching Joker’s best player in the world title.

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