Broncos punt on playoffs by benching Russ, but they’re still alive

It’s simple for the Denver Broncos: win the final two games and have Kansas City lose their last two, and not only will Broncos Country be celebrating a postseason berth, they’ll be cheering on the AFC West champions. That’s not the only path to playoff play either—there’s a scenario where the Broncos get into the Wildcard with two wins and some help from around the AFC.

It’s unlikely the Broncos end their postseason drought in 2023-24, but there’s still a slim chance. On Wednesday, the team more or less punted on what remained of their hopes, announcing star quarterback Russell Wilson is getting benched for veteran backup Jarrett Stidham.

According to the New York Times, the Broncos enter week 17 with a 6% chance to make it to the postseason. Again they only need four results to go their way—two of which the Broncos control. Beat the Chargers and Raiders and get the Bengals and Chargers to beat the Chiefs and Denver is in. The more complex path includes the Broncos jumping Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston and Indianapolis or Buffalo.

Having lost three of their last four games, just winning two may seem like a tall task at the moment. Given Wilson’s poor play, it’s not wild the Broncos are benching him, but this isn’t a pure performance-based decision—Denver is making Stidham their quarterback to give them more options this offseason.

Simply, the $37 million base salary owed to Wilson next season is guaranteed for injury. Thus, if Wilson were to play in either of the last two games and be injured, the Broncos would be stuck with that guarantee—and stuck with Wilson.

Nobody will argue Wilson is the star he once was in Seattle, though his 26 touchdowns to eight picks is a respectable mark, and so too are his 3,070 yards on a 66% completion percentage. ESPN ranks Wilson’s QBR at 21st in the league, which feels about right for how he’s played. Expecting Stidham to do better seems foolish.

The 27-year-old signed a two-year deal this past winter to become Denver’s backup. He’s played in 14 NFL games, two of which he’s started—both losses. He’ll double his start count in the next few weeks. In his NFL career, the former All-SEC first-team quarterback has thrown six touchdowns and seven picks.

Funny enough Stidham’s two starts came when the Raiders were in a similar situation last season. In that instance, the Raiders benched Derek Carr rather than play him in the season’s last two games due to injury guarantees.

Stidham could be the guy in 2024, but there’s no proof he’s better than Wilson right now. One could argue that Denver is better positioned to succeed with Wilson away from the team and some of his salary off the books—but right now, the team is on the hook for his salary this season either way. The Broncos not playing Wilson telegraphs their offseason plan and kills their last gasp this season—and it’s probably all worth it to guarantee they can move on from Russ as soon as possible.