A Broncos trade, pick value and how Riley Moss can make the deal worth it

Riley Moss is an intriguing prospect for many reasons. He’s a ballhawk. His possesses the terrific athleticism one would expect from a player with an extensive track background. And he’s versatile; as he said in his post-selection conference call with Denver-area media, he’s poised to be a “DB,” and not simply a cornerback or a safety.

And he’s not simply the No. 83 overall pick. Not when you factor in the value the Broncos surrendered to move up for the Iowa product.

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DRAFT TRADES: PREMIUM ON THE PRESENT

In the draft-trade calculus, this year’s picks always have higher value than those in a future year. This is why you see trades such as the one the Broncos made last year with the Colts.

Indianapolis wanted a third-round pick right then and there, so they sent a third-round pick in this year’s draft and a fifth-rounder last year in order to get to No. 96.

This has always been a fascinating philosophy to me. In the end, those picks don’t cease to exist. You just have to wait on them. In effect, impatience drives the market. Since the NFL stands for “Not For Long,” as Jerry Glanville famously said 34 years ago, the desire to wait can be hard to find. But that mentality creates a market inefficiency on which teams can capitalize.

Last year, that was the Broncos. In the end, this was the value of the trade with Indianapolis:

JIMMY JOHNSON MODEL

• To Colts: No. 96 (2022), 116 points
• To Broncos: No. 179 (2022), 18.2 points; No. 67 (2023), 255 points

FINAL TALLY, JOHNSON MODEL:

• Total to Colts: 116 points
• Total to Broncos: 273.2 points
• Advantage: Broncos, plus-157.2

RICH HILL MODEL:

• To Colts: No. 96 (2022), 39 points
• To Broncos: No. 179 (2022), 6 points; No. 67 (2023), 75 points

FINAL TALLY, HILL MODEL:

• Total to Colts: 39 points
• Total to Broncos: 81 points
• Advantage: Broncos, plus-42

Now, one of the reasons why this trade was so lopsided was because the Colts had a wretched season. But let’s assume the Colts finished in the middle of the pack instead. The 17th pick of Round 3 — usually pick No. 82 — is worth 180 points in the Johnson model and 54 in the Hill model.

That would give the Broncos an advantage of 81.8 points in the Johnson model and 29 points in the Hill model. All because they accepted delayed gratification. For many years, the Patriots hammered trades like this. Bill Belichick acquiring future compensation became a tradition unlike any other.

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BUT 2022 WAS THEN; THIS IS NOW

As noted last month, Sean Payton more often deals up than down. In that light, the trade that netted Moss came as no surprise to keen observers. But if viewing picks as having equal value from year to year, the Broncos sacrificed capital.

JIMMY JOHNSON MODEL

• To Broncos: No. 83 (2023), 175 points
• To Seahawks: No. 108 (2023), 78 points, Round 3 pick in 2024

RICH HILL MODEL:

• To Broncos: No. 83 (2023), 52 points
• To Seahawks: No. 108 (2023), 31 points, Round 3 pick in 2024

There is no chance for the Broncos to have raw point-value parity. Even if they win Super Bowl LVIII, pick No. 96 — the slot that would go to Seattle — would have 116 points of value on the Johnson model and 39 points on the Hill model.

Broncos GM George Paton said the choice heading to Seattle would be the lower of the Broncos’ two 2024 third-rounders. They have their own and that of the Saints, which came back to Denver in the Payton trade.

So, let’s be positive and assume that the Broncos make the playoffs, and lose in the wild-card round, while the Saints miss the postseason. New Orleans’ pick then remains with Denver. The Broncos’ selection would be in the 83-90 range — 45 to 52 points of capital in the Hill model, 140 to 175 points in the Johnson model.

In this projected calculus:

FINAL TALLY, JOHNSON MODEL:

• Total to Broncos: 175 points
• Total to Seahawks: 218 to 253 points
• Advantage: Seahawks, plus-43-to-78 points

FINAL TALLY, HILL MODEL:

• Total to Broncos: 52 points
• Total to Seahawks: 76 to 83 points
• Advantage: Seahawks, plus-24-to-31 points

Effectively, what the Broncos gave up has a value range from pick 67-74 (Johnson model) or pick 62-66 (Hill model), the latter of which would be a late-second-round pick on the high end.

But if both the Saints and Broncos struggle and land in top-10 draft spots, the Seahawks’ advantage would be at least plus-123 (Johnson) and plus-44 (Hill). In the Hill model, that would exceed the Broncos’ capital gain from their 2022 Colts trade.

Now, if Moss has a terrific career, the Broncos likely win the deal. But getting the bird in the hand rather than the to-be-determined one in the bush requires a premium.

It’s a tactic that some consider a mistake: valuing this year’s picks more than next year’s. This happens even when the following year’s class is considered down compared to the current crop.

The Broncos were able to take advantage of that last year; a desperate Colts team wanted back in the third round. So, they sent what turned out to be pick No. 67 in this year’s draft to the Broncos.

One year after the Broncos capitalized on this market inefficiency, the Seahawks did the same to the Broncos.

That said, the Broncos didn’t bet big on Moss. To “bet big” involves draft capital in the first two rounds. Or trading up for a Round 1 QB. This isn’t a breathtaking move.

But it does offer a hint of what is to come.

There will be bold trades to come. Time will tell if it proves wise. But for the Broncos, it is different … and after the last seven seasons, anything different might be good.

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