The Broncos game plan for the Chiefs leaves little margin for error
Dec 31, 2022, 9:59 AM
The Denver Broncos aren’t going anywhere this season. They’ve fired their head coach before his first season was completed, they have a rash of injuries that few in the league can match, and they’re dealing with a quarterback that is no longer what he used to be. All that being said, the final two games of the regular season do matter.
The 4-11 Broncos travel to a hostile place in Week 17 as they take on the 12-3 Kansas City Chiefs. This is a division rival, but the Broncos haven’t been able to put up much of a fight in almost a decade. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs (Week 2 of the 2015 season), Barack Obama was the President of the United States, Peyton Manning was their quarterback, and the Broncos were Super Bowl contenders (even early in that season they were considered a team who could win it all). They eventually did win Super Bowl 50, and it’s been all downhill since then.
The Chiefs are tough to beat at home. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places to play in all of football, and the Chiefs still have plenty to play for. They currently trail the Buffalo Bills for the only bye in the AFC, so the Chiefs must win out and hope the Bills lose one of their last to games to earn that no.1 seed.
How will the Broncos attack the Chiefs on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.
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When the Broncos Run the Ball
The best plan for the Broncos is to run the ball as much as possible. It’s not yet happened outside of the win over the Arizona Cardinals, but the best recipe for success is to feed RB Latavius Murray early and often. The Chiefs love to get after the quarterback, and the Broncos have protection woes that cause a ton of problems. The solution? Run the damn ball.
Since the Chiefs love to get up the field and hunt the quarterback, draw plays and screen passes will work regularly. The Broncos need to set this type of play up, but if they can execute them correctly – and at the right time – a big play is waiting to happen. A draw play avoids the rushers on the edge, and a screen pass (essentially a long handoff) can use the Chiefs momentum against them.
Murray or Marlon Mack are useful on these plays. I also think that toss plays will work as well. That kind of runs right at the teeth of the defense, although the Chiefs do have talent in the middle of their defensive line but going to the edge gets Murray the ball quickly where he can scan the field and look for the cutback lane. If no cutback is there, Murray could just follow his blockers for a gain to keep the clock moving and open the playbook with a shorter second or third down.
"A big day for Latavius Murray!"
How Dave Logan saw @LataviusM's diving touchdown in #AZvsDEN: pic.twitter.com/dJMfcPzChN
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 19, 2022
Murray and Mack can be a heckuva combination for the Broncos – if they stay dedicated to the rushing attack. I’d like to see a balanced approach from the Broncos on Sunday. It would make me happy to see them go with a run-heavy approach, but against a high-powered Chiefs offense they may not be able to maintain that style and rhythm to this contest.
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When the Broncos Pass the Ball
Can Broncos QB Russell Wilson play better football? Former Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett was not a good fit with Wilson, and the pair was doomed from day one. Hackett is gone, and Wilson’s contract means that he’s going to be the starter for now and the 2023 season at least. The next Broncos coach needs to get the best out of Wilson, and it would be nice to see some “vintage Russ” against the Chiefs in Week 17.
It would also be nice if Wilson had more of his weapons available. It looks like rookie TE Greg Dulcich will not play on Sunday due to another hamstring injury. That means we could see veteran TE Albert Okwuegbunam active for the first time in weeks. The tight end has been something consistent for the Broncos’ passing attack, and it would behoove them to keep using the middle of the field to move the chains.
At the end of the week, the playing status of WR Courtland Sutton (hamstring), WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle), and WR Kendall Hinton (hamstring) are unknown. There’s a chance all three could play, as they’ve been limited in practice this week. However, they may not be themselves on the field against the Chiefs. That’s bad news for Wilson. He needs a good game, and it will be difficult to put good film out there for the next coach when your top weapons are either out or not performing at peak levels.
Russ connects with Dulcich for the TD
📺: #DENvsLAR on CBS/NICK
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/xXDYpCJpC1<;/a> pic.twitter.com/iqLW7c7VF4— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2022
Missing some key weapons on offense could hinder the Broncos’ passing game. Could Okwuegbunam (if active) do some of the things Dulcich does? Yes, of course – if only the team trusts him to do so. They may not have a choice given the injury bug that continues to bite them, even at the end of the season.
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When the Chiefs Run the Ball
Stop me if you’ve heard this before; the Broncos should have drafted Rutgers RB Isiah Pacheco instead of WR/KR Montrell Washington in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Pacheco has been the starter for the Chiefs for most of the year, and the seventh-round pick is one of the young stars on a supremely talented offense. Often described as the angriest runner in the league, Pacheco does not go down without a fight. He’s got incredible speed, and his no-nonsense style means he can gash a defense with the slightest crease.
Behind Pacheco, veteran RB Jerick McKinnon has been the perfect complementary back. McKinnon fits the system perfectly, and his ability as a runner in space or a receiver in space is outstanding. With defenses so focused on the passing game, the running backs usually have more space to work with – something McKinnon takes advantage of quite frequently.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is one of the best in the game. Not only is he a great passer – arguably one of the best in the history of the NFL – but Mahomes can attack a defense with his legs. He’s got the capability to scramble at a moment’s notice, but Mahomes does a good job of exhausting all options as a passer before taking off to run.
MAHOMES FOR THE HOLIDAYS 🎁 pic.twitter.com/Ma21k0F4fy
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 24, 2022
Pacheco beats you up with his angry style, and McKinnon beats you with speed and big-play ability. Deal with those two backs, and you still have to deal with Mahomes as a rusher. It’s a tall order for the Broncos, who are also dealing with injuries to their defensive line.
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When the Chiefs Pass the Ball
The Chiefs are blessed with a ton of different weapons in their passing game. Their primary weapon is TE Travis Kelce. Even at age 33, Kelce can still get open with ease. Teams focus on Kelce, putting two and sometimes three defenders in his area, and the veteran can still make a play for his quarterback. Kelce is Mahomes’ “struggle target” and when the chips are down Mahomes will look for his main man. Last time out, the Broncos held Kelce in check for three quarters, but he was still able to catch 4-of-9 targets for 71 yards in Week 14.
Another favorite for Mahomes is veteran WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. He’s a perfect player to target on underneath routes, and Smith-Schuster’s game can be summed up in one word; consistent. Add in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the Chiefs not only have the most wide receivers with hyphens in their name, but they also have another receiver to take the top off the defense.
They traded for WR Kadarius Toney before the trade deadline earlier this year. While Toney is usually battling hamstring problems, the former first-round pick is incredibly dangerous in space. Toney is lightning quick, and his supreme foot frequency means he can cut on a dime and create space easily. The Chiefs use him as a runner or receiving threat on gadget plays. Speaking of that skill set, it looks like WR Mecole Hardman may be able to return from his abdomen injury on Sunday against the Broncos. He’s been out of action for a month and a half, but Hardman can be sprinkled into the Chiefs’ offense in the same way Toney can.
KT giving the gift of points 🎁
📺: #SEAvsKC on FOX pic.twitter.com/ihBcYGmQjR
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 24, 2022
If the Broncos can somehow limit Kelce, that will greatly help their chances on Sunday. However, the Chiefs have Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Toney, and Hardman to attack their secondary. If Mahomes has time, he could easily pick apart this Broncos’ defense whether it’s short, intermediate, or deep targets on Sunday.
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