Just how significant was the Broncos upset win vs. the Chargers?
Nov 29, 2021, 6:15 AM | Updated: 6:16 am
Despite entering Sunday’s home game against the Los Angeles Chargers squarely “in the hunt” for a postseason berth, the Denver Broncos chances of making the playoffs rested about 16 percent.
But with the upset against their AFC West foe, the probability of Denver earning a chance to play well into January nearly doubled.
According to the New York Times, the Broncos’ chances of making the playoffs jumped by 10 percentage points to 26 percent after their dominating 28-13 win over the Chargers at home.
Per statistical analytics site FiveThirtyEight.com, Denver’s chances of earning a postseason berth are now about 27 percent.
But what if the Broncos can string together back-to-back upsets when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football next weekend?
Not only will Denver find themselves in first place in the AFC West, but the New York Times projects the Broncos chances of making the postseason will jump to roughly 42 percent.
If you ask FiveThirtyEight.com, the Broncos playoff probability with an upset in Arrowhead jumps to 56 percent.
Certainly, Denver has benefitted from an easier-than-most path through heading into Week 12, coming in 30th in strength of schedule per Pro Football Focus. And their remaining games rank ninth in difficulty compared to the rest of the NFL.
But, for the first time in quite a while, the Broncos will be playing meaningful football in December — something Broncos Country should be thankful for following Thanksgiving weekend.
