What does Erik Johnson waving his no-movement clause mean?

Fans think longtime Colorado Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson’s hockey future is up in the air. With the Seattle Kraken on the clock with the NHL expansion draft a week away, rumors are flying. Who will be on the move?

News on Tuesday fueled the speculation. Johnson agreed to waive his no-movement clause, which would make him available for selection by the Kraken. Having Johnson electing not to waive it would have guaranteed him a spot on the Avalanche protected list, exposing other highly sought-after assets.

The information released tells me one thing. The Kraken, Avalanche and Johnson all know the ending. The team nor the player would not have gone public if there was not an agreement in place. Why did he waive the clause? There is always a reason why.

The Avalanche acquired Johnson from the St. Louis Blues in what was then a controversial trade in 2011. Many people believed the Avalanche lost out by trading Chris Stewart to the Blues. Stewart was coming off big seasons with the Avs, and the connection with center Paul Stastny had Avs fans excited for the future. Instead, Stewart was shipped off to the Midwest for a young, talented and maybe underperforming No. 1-overall talent in Johnson.

Hall of Famer and father of Paul Stastny, Peter Stastny, expressed his opinion publicly soon after the swap on St. Louis radio station KMOX-AM.

“This young team was ready to challenge, almost, for a Stanley Cup this season. They were so good. All they needed was some more chemistry and some synergies. Instead, they destroyed the team. I mean, that was a one-way deal. (Blues GM) Mr. Armstrong will look like a genius. I don’t know what they were thinking in the Colorado organization. I should not have said this, but I’m so, so mad at what they’ve done to this team. They’ve moved the team about two to three years back again.”

Big words from the elder Statsny.  If you asked him today, would he say his son was why Stewart was so good?  But there was information that wasn’t public. A situation that the Statsnys maybe not aware of.  There are no stupid general managers in the NHL. Fans of the NHL may disagree, but the person in charge of hockey operations knows more than you.

Often teams and general managers are judged by trades they make. Media and fans will voice their opinions, rightfully so. However, from my experience, there is always that reason why.

When trades are brought up in discussions internally, a player will always be mentioned that the scouting staff will say, “Why is that guy available?” It could be a heavy contract. Perhaps the player asked to be traded. Maybe there was a disagreement with the coaching staff. Off-ice issues. There are endless possibilities. There are situations and reasoning that are not made known to other teams involved, let alone the public

Review the trade now. Johnson has played more than 450 regular season games with the Avalanche. Stewart hit the ice 247 times the Blues before playing for five different teams, seven total in his career, and has one goal in the NHL since 2018.

Johnson was, and is, a big part of the Avalanche team. He is a professional, a stable veteran defenseman that I believe is needed with the youthful core. He’s a player that has years left in the tank. Valuable years to a team, but which team?

Now what happens?

Seattle looks to Vegas as a guide. The 2017 NHL expansion draft set the Golden Knights up for years of success. Right away they were contenders.

Minnesota was ready to win the cup and had one of the best defensive units in the league.  In order to keep Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba, the Wild gave up Erik Haula and Alex Tuch.

The Columbus Blue Jackets were in trouble. Vegas took on a player in David Clarkson they knew would never play for them in exchange for William Karlson, a first-round pick, and a second-round pick. That first-round pick turned out to be Nick Suzuki.

Here are three scenarios that I think have the greatest probabilities for the Avalanche:

Kraken draft Johnson

This allows the Avs to keep Makar, Toews, Girard and Graves. This is a win for both teams. The Avs will have to pay heavily, but this is what the Avalanche want — and Seattle knows it. The Kraken will abuse teams like Colorado, Tampa and Toronto. I see the Kraken taking Johnson, a high pick, and a young prospect.

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Kraken draft Ryan Graves

This is a win for the Kraken. If I am Seattle, I take Graves over any forwards exposed.

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Avalanche choose eight players to protect

The Avs try to get creative here. They understand the rules and hope to trust their players. Unrestricted free agent Gabe Landeskog is left off the protected list with a gentlemen’s agreement of a new long-term deal that would be signed after the expansion draft.

On the protected list, the Avs choose Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky and Nazem Kadri as their forwards and Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard and Ryan Graves on the back end.

I value their defensemen core more than their forwards. The playoffs exposed their strengths and weaknesses. The Kraken take Tyson Jost or a Johnson deal.

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