Broncos vs. Jaguars: Breaking down Denver’s game plan for Sunday

The Broncos come back home to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Jaguars in Week 4. With an 0-3 record, nobody on the team is happy and fans are getting uptight about this season. The Broncos need to turn things around at home for themselves, the vibe around the team and the fan base.

The Jaguars have a strong defense, especially in their front seven, and they are known to get after the passer. This is not going to be an easy game for the Broncos, but this is most certainly a winnable game.

Let’s take a look at how Denver will attack Jacksonville on both sides of the ball.

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When the Broncos Run the Ball

Phillip Lindsay led the way against the Packers in Week 3, but the team needs Royce Freeman to do more. The Jaguars have a very active front seven on defense and they can be rough and physical with their playing style. Freeman needs to be used as a road grader for the Broncos offense, but the team might need to throw in some wrinkles to help him.

In the play below, you see both Freeman and Lindsay on the field at the same time. Linsday is lined up in the slot, but before the snap, he goes in motion. The Broncos use a play fake to Lindsay to fool the defense but it is Freeman who gets the ball. The play was blocked well except for one guy, and that defensive end that right tackle Eli Wilkinson failed to block ended up running down the line and tackling Freeman for a loss. If that one block is made, there is a nice cut-back lane that Freeman likely would have seen and been able to turn that into a 10-yard (or more) run.

The Broncos can run the ball against the tough Jaguars defense. However, I anticipate that we’ll see more jet sweeps, motions and draw plays to slow down the pursuit of the opponent.

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When the Broncos Pass the Ball

The Broncos need to find a way to get the most out of their passing game, but will have another tough challenge on Sunday. It’s “Football 101” when facing a swarming defense like the Jaguars. That means the Broncos should use draw plays, screen passes and shovel passes to use the Jaguars defensive momentum against them. They’ll rush up the field too far, and Denver will throw a simple pass underneath or outside for potentially big gains.

In the play below, you see what can happen when a team thinks a middle screen is coming. The Packers are going to blitz up the middle and that is where Lindsay comes to save the day in pass protection. The defense thinks screen or even a quick outside throw to the H-back, but Denver has different plans. Tight end Noah Fant releases from his stance and finds a small soft spot in the zone. The linebacker for Green Bay reads the play, but only after he bites a bit on Lindsay in the middle. That small hesitation allows Joe Flacco to zip a pass into Fant that goes for a 17-yard gain.

Fant is an emerging weapon for the Broncos. As the Jaguars expect the play to go elsewhere, it would be a boost for the Broncos offense if we could see Fant get the ball more to help move the chains. That, and it would be nice to see the rookie tight end get more looks in the red zone too, but that’s a different article!

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When the Jaguars Run the Ball

The Broncos have faced more rushing attempts than passing attempts so far in 2019, as opponents try to keep the Denver defense at bay. The Jaguars have a perfect battering ram to soften up the defense in running back Leonard Fournette. He has not quite looked the same this season, but did show great burst on a 69-yard run last week against the Titans.

Denver has to watch out for this play below. This is a simple run up the middle, but it became a 69-yard run because Fournette never gave up on the play and part-time left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi continued his blocking to the second level to seal the defensive pursuit. The Titans run-blitz the Jaguars here, and they are thinking run up the gut all the way with the Jaguars in “22” personnel (two running backs, two tight ends). They guess correctly, but Fournette keeps his feet grinding and finds a small pocket to run through. Then, he spins out and finds the right of the defense sealed so he takes off to run down the left sideline for a huge gain.

The Broncos defense is going to be without Derek Wolfe on Sunday, so they could be a little softer against the run. They have a strong rushing defense, but they have allowed a league-high five rushing touchdowns so far after three weeks.

In 2019, the Broncos defense is limiting running backs to the sixth-fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.5). They don’t give up big plays to running backs, but the goal-line defense has not been as strong as it needs to be. Four of those five rushing touchdowns came on runs from within the five-yard line, while the fifth touchdown came from the seven-yard line.

The Broncos can slow down Fournette and the Jaguars rushing attack between the 20s, but if they get close to the end zone, the defense simply needs to play better with points on the line.

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When the Jaguars Pass the Ball

Rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew is more than a mustache. Many will focus on his fashion or his persona, but I want to focus on the best parts of his game. I describe Minshew as smart, accurate and fearless as a passer. The Broncos have their work cut out for them because of the speedy wide receivers like Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark on the outside.

However, there is another weapon that could give Denver the most trouble. The Broncos cannot forget about tight end James O’Shaughnessy.

In the play below, you see the Jaguars lined up at the seven-yard line in “21” personnel. They are showing a “heavy” look with two backs lined up in the I-formation and the Jaguars want to sell they are running this close to pay dirt. At the snap, Minshew fakes the handoff and drops back. The line flows to the right as do both backs. O’Shaughnessy blocks his outside defender, but he is waiting for the corner to commit to the run play. Once that defender steps too far towards the play, the tight end sheds his man and catches a wide-open touchdown.

The Jaguars have speed on the outside, but they want to bludgeon you with a ground attack first. Once that is established (or once you think that is coming), they can use O’Shaughnessy on quick-hitting plays. The Broncos have to be ready for this simple-but-effective deception.

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Summary

I believe the Broncos could dominate the Jaguars on Sunday. Now, I have predicted the Broncos to win in two (Raiders, Bears) of the three games this year and could be totally wrong about Week 4. However, having been around this locker room all week, I sense a mantra of urgency from all the players.

The Broncos have to use the ground game to soften up the Jaguars defense. Once that happens, don’t get too cute looking for the big play but chip away at them with simple-but-effective screen passes and draw plays. The big plays will come if you set them up earlier in the game.

On defense, the Broncos first must shut down Fournette. As evidenced by last week’s game, the Jaguars will keep pounding Fournette into an opponent even if the results aren’t there. All he needs is a little bit of daylight to turn a regular play into an explosive play.

Make Minshew look like a rookie should be the plan for the defense in Week 4. The Jaguars rookie is talented and accurate, but Vic Fangio’s defense has made great offenses seem mortal. Now, that was with the Bears over the last couple of years, but they need to find a way to make it happen with the Broncos and it needs to start now.

This team is teetering on the edge, but they could win four out of the next six games before their bye in Week 10. I shudder to think what would happen if the team drops another game and starts the season 0-4.

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