Evans: Avalanche or Nuggets, which has the best shot at the playoffs?
Mar 6, 2018, 7:24 PM | Updated: 7:51 pm
Here we go.
The best parts of the hockey and basketball seasons are here. It’s the stretch run for the playoffs in the NHL and NBA. Both the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche are right in the thick of nailing down a coveted postseason berth.
So, which team has the best chance?
Make my choice the Avalanche. Here’s why:
The Avs’ best player is playing like its best player
Nathan MacKinnon is scorching hot right now with 15 goals in his last 22 games. He has the makings of being the Avs first true superstar since the glory days of Sakic, Forsberg, Roy, etc.
The Hart Trophy talk, though, is premature. It’s hard to see Mac winning the MVP with Colorado’s wretched recent history and the fact that if they do make the playoffs, it will likely be as a wild card team.
This season will put MacKinnon on everyone’s radar. If he follows it up with a playoff berth and outstanding play, then he’ll begin next season as a legit Hart Trophy candidate.
As for the Nuggets, the return of Paul Millsap seems to have thrown Nikola Jokic out of rhythm. The Joker was a beast in February, with four triple-doubles and two more near miss triple-doubles.
Since Millsap’s return, Jokic has averaged a mere 12 points per game, attempting only 6 shots per game.
Of the few remaining hurdles in Jokic’s road to becoming a star, aggressiveness is one. Too often he defers to others.
He needs to realize he’s “The Man,” and the more he’s involved in the offense, the better the Nuggets are.
The Avalanche schedule is better
Of Colorado’s 17 remaining games, eight are at home and nine are on the road.
Plus, the club’s longest road trip is only three games, though granted it’s a tough one — at Anaheim, Los Angeles, and San Jose before they return home to finish the season against St. Louis.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets finish with eight home games and 11 roadies, including a potentially back-breaking seven-game trip.
It’s not that the opponents are that hard. It’s just the rigors of being out on the road that long this deep in the season.
The first six games are played in 11 days, with one back-to-back. The final four games of the trip are the iron of the trip, with visits to the Washington (John Wall will be back), Philadelphia and Toronto (the back-to-back), and then Oklahoma City.
The Avs’ competition is easier
Colorado is in a wild card pool with Calgary, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, and St. Louis. Only the Blues play in the Avalanche’s division.
Those four Pacific Division teams will likely take turns knocking each other off down the stretch, which means one of those teams getting hot and pulling away is doubtful.
Even if that happens, it still leaves three other teams that could easily fall into a win-two-lose-one type rut that keeps the Avs close right until the end.
One thing to watch down the stretch are those hated “three-point games” — when two teams go to overtime, with the winner coming away with two points and the loser with one.
It doesn’t help Colorado if, say, the Kings beat the Ducks in overtime or a shootout. Los Angeles gets two points, and Anaheim gets one.
What I’m saying is, the Avs need to make sure if they don’t win that they at least come away with a point. Plus, Colorado needs to hope its rivals play games that end in regulation.
The Nuggets have much more competition. There are eight teams battling for six playoff spots.
Not only are they chasing the teams ahead of them, but they’re getting stiff competition from behind from the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz.
There is very little room for error. Which brings me back to that seven-game road trip. Denver could play well, even go 4-3. But during that time, they could give away precious ground in the standings.
Hopefully, both teams make the playoffs.
The Avalanche have less to lose. The thought was that because they were so bad last year they’re perhaps a year away anyway.
The Nuggets have to make the playoffs to convince fans they are going in the right direction. To fall short this year would be a huge setback.
