Evans: As Rockies report for spring training, is 2018 playoffs or bust?

My thoughts and observations as the Colorado Rockies kick off its (a much too long) spring training …

I absolutely love what the Rockies did with its bullpen …

… Including acquiring Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw and re-signing of Jake McGee.

Sure, at a combined $106 million it was expensive. But that money is worth it if these guys can make it so Colorado’s playing six-inning games.

I’m as “old school” as they come, and I miss the days of starting pitchers throwing complete games. I miss the idea of a starter being able to work out of his own late-inning jams. I’m not really a fan of seven pitchers being used to win a game.

But that’s what the game has become.

Starting pitchers are babied. Managers love the advantages that come with mixing and matching relievers to hitters. Relievers love having defined roles that have them starting their inning of expertise — from set-up to closing.

In order to win in today’s game, you better have a bullpen capable of locking down those final nine outs. If you do, you’re a contender. If that means spending big money on it, so be it.

What’s going on at first base?

For the second straight year, the Rockies want someone, seemingly anyone, but Mark Reynolds to grab ahold of the position. This year it’s rookie Ryan McMahon or veteran Ian Desmond.

There are a couple of problems with that.

McMahon is unproven. Desmond sounds like a reluctant first baseman who would prefer playing in the outfield.

Meanwhile, “The Franchise” (Nolan Arenado) started out camp saying how much he appreciated the comfort Reynolds provided on throws to first base. Then, realizing he needed to sound more like a “team guy,” Arenado shifted into, “Well, it’s my job to hit whoever is over there right in the chest.”

Sorry Nolan, you already let the truth slip.

Part of what makes Arenado the best third baseman in baseball is his ability to take chances on making the outrageous play. Part of that includes trusting the first baseman will be there to help him out. If he doesn’t trust who’s over there, does that make him a reluctant artist?

I would think Colorado wants to make Arenado happy. Maybe that means reaching out to Reynolds again?

Speaking of Arenado …

Is it just me or are Rockies fans getting nervous about some of these contracts?

Colorado has been able to string things out, living in arbitration land. But these bills are about to come due.

D.J. LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon will be free agents after this season. Arenado will be a free agent after next season. Are the Rockies willing to pay big bucks to three of its most productive, and certainly fan-favorite, players?

I’m willing to let LeMahieu walk. He’s replaceable. But Blackmon and Arenado? Seems to me it’s simple. If you intend to sign these guys, you don’t let them become free agents.

Colorado loses in any scenario that opens these players up to a bidding war where big market teams can wade in and flex their considerable financial muscles.

If the Rockies want to keep Blackmon and/or Arenado, you get it done early. If they don’t, that tells me Colorado’s willing to let them go.

Is that OK with you?

Look, I don’t trust owner Dick Montfort. I think he’s scared off by what it would cost to lock these guys up long term, especially Arenado, who could demand a deal in the $400 million neighborhood.

What I’m saying is: Does this renewed optimism in the Rockies have an expiration date?

Whatever window is open right now could slam shut if Arenado and Blackmon aren’t going to be here.

Are you as curious as I am …

… About why the wise guys in Vegas have the Rockies over/under win total at just 81 1/2? They won 87 games last year and have everyone back, plus a bolstered bullpen.

What’s the deal?

Here’s my theory: They don’t trust the young arms to make the leap this year.

Maybe the league adjusts to Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, et al, and the young arms spend a grueling year trying to counter-adjust.

The other possibility is the National League West will be a war of attrition — a season-long bear.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a beast. The San Francisco Giants will be much improved. The Arizona Diamondbacks, even without J.D. Martinez, are still formidable. Heck, even the San Diego Padres will be better with the addition of Eric Hosmer.

Those are my theories.

I’ll still take the over.

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