Forget-a-bowl: One expert now has CU in Playoff and there’s more

The Colorado Buffaloes may not just be going bowling but playing for the national championship. Under the brand new format, the quarterfinal and semifinal of the College Football Playoff are still bowl games but win both and you’re in the National Championship Game.

Only one of the five experts that we’ve been watching all season currently projects the Buffs to be in the College Football Playoff—but that’s more than last week. It’s because of CU’s giant win over Texas Tech on Saturday, where they also got help from elsewhere in the Big 12. It’s clear the Buffs path to control their own destiny in conference and CU does not have an above .500 team left on their slate. Meaning Colorado has it easy, all they have to do is win their final three games, play in the Big 12 Title Game and if they win that contest—there’s an automatic bid to the CFP. Better than that, there’s a spot in the quarterfinal waiting for them. It’s still a lot to ask and many wins to rack up but Action Network’s Brett McMurphy has this exact scenario playing out.

Colorado is now favored to win the Big 12 and its title game, but that’s where the favoritism stops because McMurphy has the Ohio State Buckeyes meeting the Buffaloes in the CFP Quarterfinal hosted by the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona. The current line on that hypothetical contest shows Colorado as a 15-point underdogs.

Still, that’s the most positive anyone is on Colorado with the other four experts still projecting Colorado to miss the CFP and just go normal bowling. Here’s what we know now:

Colorado is now 7-2 and ranked No. 20 in the CFP poll that came out last Tuesday. Kansas State, Pittsburgh and Iowa State were in three places ahead of the Buffs—all lost this weekend. Texas A&M at No. 14 also lost and so too did No. 6 Penn State. Factoring in bye weeks, Colorado could come in as high as No. 15 on Tuesday just outside of the 12-team playoff. Though if they win the Big 12 not only will they get into the pool but they’ll get the bye placing them straight into the quarterfinal.

Buffs bowl projections

24/7 Sports: Holiday Bowl (San Diego) against Clemson
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Holiday Bowl (San Diego) against SMU
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: Alamo Bowl (San Antonio) against Washington State
KSL Sports: Las Vegas Bowl against Missouri
Action Network: CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ) against Ohio State

The last two times Colorado has made a bowl game they’ve traveled to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, and neither was a good result. The Buffaloes last played in the Holiday Bowl way back in 1996, a 33-21 win over Washington—Colorado’s lone trip to San Diego for the postseason. Bowl projections are a little bit tough this year because the bowl tie-ins are also muddied this fall due to conference realignment, meaning long-established relationships between conferences and bowls have been tossed away. However, some prior Pac-12 tie-ins for CU are still active. At any rate, Buffaloes fans will be happy about bowling just maybe not so much if it’s the Alamo Bowl, where Colorado has lost in all three of their appearances. Even more happy in Boulder, is what the Action Network says is possible.