At midseason milepost, Bo Nix is headed in the right direction
Oct 30, 2024, 4:05 AM | Updated: 1:27 pm
There is a reason why Sean Payton mused Sunday about the offense beyond Bo Nix.
“The key is — and I’ve said it — the key is around him. Are we good enough at these other positions around him?” Payton asked after the 28-14 win.
The two fumbles by wide receivers Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Courtland Sutton that bracketed four touchdown drives rankled him. Those might have been all that separated the Broncos from their most explosive offensive output in six years.
But the indications on Nix remain solid. Following a win over New Orleans in which Nix missed some makeable throws, the rookie’s downfield accuracy was pinpoint. And even through the bumps, Nix has shown an ability to avoid backbreaking plays, quickly elevating his floor.
When you have a 6-game stretch that places you in a group of 3 quarterbacks since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger — the other two of which are a 3-time Pro Bowler (Dak Prescott) and a young quarterback already widely reputed to be among the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL (C.J. Stroud) — you’ve done something right.
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The grade for the passing offense — and other units — reflect the progress shown in working out of an 0-2 start.
PASSING OFFENSE: B-MINUS
With a rookie quarterback, yes, there’s some grading on a curve. But Bo Nix’s form has been on a steady rise, as evidenced by the fact that his rolling 3-week EPA (expected points added)-per-play figure is above 0.000 for the first time — at 0.178 for the last three weeks. He had four interceptions in Weeks 1-2; he has just one since, as well as no fumbles. Nix’s growth starts with avoiding negative plays. The next stage will be to see more precise-placement throws downfield like his Week 8 touchdown pass to Adam Trautman.
The Broncos are one of just 6 teams without a single player who has 3 touchdown receptions. They also rank 23rd in drop rate per the data compiled by Pro Football Focus, with one drop every 22.9 catchable passes.
Denver ranks 27th in EPA per dropback (-.100) and 28th in success rate (40.1 percent) for the season, per rbsdm.com. But their form has improved; in the last three weeks, they rank 22nd (plus-.043) and 12th (46.8 percent) in those figures, respectively.
The protection is terrific; Denver is the only team in the NFL with both of its tackles ranking in the top 10 in pass-block win rate per ESPN Analytics; Garett Bolles is fourth and Mike McGlinchey ranks seventh. Luke Wattenberg, Ben Powers and Alex Forsyth all rank among the top 10 in that figure among interior offensive linemen.
RUSHING OFFENSE: B
As with the passing offense, the form has improved over the course of the season, with Javonte Williams’ revival in Week 4 helping get the ground game back into form. Since Week 4, Williams has averaged 58.8 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. In that same span, Jaleel McLaughlin has returned to his explosive rookie form, averaging 31.6 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry in that span.
The Broncos rank 11th in rushing EPA/play (minus-0.034) and fifth in success rate (45.7 percent). But fumbles are a concern. Denver running backs have a league-worst 6 fumbles so far this season.
PASSING DEFENSE: A
No team has the the rush-and-cover combination of the Broncos so far this season, and the data is as strong as the film, as the Broncos lead the league with an average per-dropback EPA of minus-0.186 allowed and a success rate of 39.7 percent per dropback.
The pass rushers lead the league with a 57-percent pass-rush win rate, per ESPN Analytics. Zach Allen has been dominant, while Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper have combined for 11.5 sacks, making the Broncos one of just three teams who have two players with more than 5 sacks apiece (Bonitto 6, Cooper 5.5).
In coverage, Pat Surtain II freaks fourth among NFL cornerbacks with 0.48 yards allowed per coverage snap (minimum 200 snaps), per the data compiled by Pro Football Focus. Riley Moss has been targeted 54 times — more than all but two NFL cornerbacks — allowing an 88.4 passer rating when targeted.
RUSHING DEFENSE: B
Perhaps the most-improved area of the team, the Broncos rank 10th in run-stop win rate per ESPN Analytics, mainly because D.J. Jones has returned to form while Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Myers have provided the interior upgrades needed after last season. Denver ranks 11th in the NFL in rushing EPA/play (minus-0.123) and 15th in success rate allowed (37.4 percent). But more teams may challenge the Broncos on the ground from this point forward, starting with Baltimore and Derrick Henry on Sunday.
SPECIAL TEAMS: A
While Marvin Mims Jr. hasn’t been as explosive on returns as he was last year, the rest of the Broncos’ special-teams indicators are among the NFL’s best. It starts with kicker Wil Lutz. Among 30 kickers with at least 10 field-goal attempts, Lutz ranks fourth in success rate, hitting 94.4 percent of his attempts. He is perfect on all kicks — including extra points — from inside 50 yards. Punter Riley Dixon is tied for the league lead with 20 punts inside the 20-yard line — but as seen last Sunday, he has plenty of help from a coverage team that is among the NFL’s best.
