With Derek Carr joining New Orleans, which Saints could be cap casualties and in the Broncos’ sights?

The Broncos might benefit on multiple fronts from the New Orleans Saints adding quarterback Derek Carr.

First, there’s the fact that Carr is now out of the AFC West. The Raiders went 11-6 against the Broncos when Carr started — including wins in 11 of the last 14. In those games, Carr threw 15 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.

Getting Carr off the slate is a healthy thing.

But by going to New Orleans, Carr heads to a team that will have to continue pruning in order to fit his contract under its salary cap. According to OvertheCap.com, New Orleans entered Monday a projected $18.7 million over the salary cap. In recent weeks, the Saints have been busy with restructures to create more short-term space. But those have only gotten them so far.

And now, with ex-Saints coach Sean Payton in Denver, it’s easy to connect the dots.

QB JAMEIS WINSTON:

Carr’s arrival probably means the exit for Winston, who joined Payton in 2020 as a reclamation project following his infamous “30-for-30” 2019 campaign with Tampa Bay (33 touchdowns, 30 interceptions).

But Payton saw something more.

“There became this lazy, easy narrative about his interceptions,” Payton told WJZ-FM in Baltimore last year. “And I totally understand it. Yet, that was a part of a team, and he was a part of that, and where were a lot of dirty hands with a statistic like that.”

ter backing up Drew Brees in 2020, he opened 2021 as the starter. Winston promptly cut his interception rate from one every 21.1 passes in five Bucs seasons — including one every 20.9 attempts in 2019 — to one every 53.7 attempts in 2021, his only season starting for Payton.

In 2021, New Orleans looked to be playoff-bound with Winston. They went 5-2 to open the season with him taking snaps. But in Week 7, he tore his ACL, ending his season. The Saints dropped their first five games after Winston’s injury and never recovered.

A year ago, Payton told WJZ-FM that he believed Winston “definitely” has a second act in his career in the future.

“He’s a tremendous teammate and worker,” Payton said. The two years we had together were fantastic. There was nothing more gut-wrenching than seeing his injury.”

New Orleans would save $12.8 million of cap space by cutting Winston with a post-June 1 designation. Releasing him seems to be a logical and easy call for the Saints. The question now is this: How much do the Broncos want to spend on a backup, and would Winston forego other opportunities to reunite with Payton, a coach with whom there is a clear, strong bond?

WR MICHAEL THOMAS:

In regards to a potential move, the January restructure of Thomas is the most interesting move made. His 2023 salary was reduced, with money converted into a 2024 roster bonus. If Thomas is on the roster as of March 17, that 2024 roster bonus — a whopping $31.755 million — for 2024 becomes fully guaranteed.

The significance of this is that the Saints restructured Thomas on the final date possible that would allow them to divide the cap hit of his potential release over two years. Unlike other restructures, this appears to have been designed to set up a release.

Thomas has played in just three games over the last two years — all early in 2022. He averaged a touchdown per game in those three contests. The talent remains there. But good health has not been a part of his recent career.

EDGE CAMERON JORDAN

As with Winston, it’s about the post-June 1 designation. Cutting or trading Jordan in that manner would create $14.97 million in cap space with just under $10.74 million in dead money, per OvertheCap.com. A pre-June 1 move creates just $2.21 million of space this year.

Jordan is going into his 13th year, and last season missed the Pro Bowl for the first time since 2016. But he’s still effective and durable — he had 8.5 sacks in 2022 and he’s missed just two games in his career. This means demand for Jordan could be high.

What could prevent a Payton-Jordan reunion is this: Other teams would have interest, and could likely offer more in draft capital than the Broncos.

G ANDRUS PEAT

Injuries caught up with the three-time Pro Bowler in the last two seasons; he missed 17 of a possible 34 games in that span. A restructure last year means the Saints would benefit little from a pre-June 1 move; they gain just $1.387 million of 2023 cap relief now, but would pick up $11.825 million against the 2023 cap with a post-June 1 designation.

Payton prioritizes the interior offensive line. And the results are obvious, revealed in seven different Saints guards and centers combining for 17 different Pro Bowl appearances during Payton’s 16 seasons as coach. (By comparison, Denver had just three Pro Bowl selections from three interior offensive linemen in that same 2016-21 span.)

The question on Peat is this: Can he stay healthy and recapture his old form? If that is the case, he might be worth a Broncos look.

CB MARSHON LATTIMORE

It’s a surprise that the Saints have yet to do anything with Lattimore’s contract, as he seems to be a prime restructure candidate. Cutting Lattimore doesn’t save any cap space — even with a post-June 1 designation. But a trade would; according to OvertheCap.com, the Saints save $14.5 million with a post-June 1 trade of Lattimore. (A pre-June 1 trade would add to their 2023 cap hit with the cornerback.)

RB ALVIN KAMARA

In a similar vein to Lattimore is Kamara. New Orleans can clear just over $10 million of cap space with a post-June 1 trade of the veteran running back. (They’d clear $9.94 million with a post-June 1 release of Kamara.) Their pre-June 1 savings would be $1.67 million with a trade, and only $662,176 with a release, per OvertheCap.com.

Kamara is a reliable weapon, and remains a sturdy passing-game threat. His per-carry average dropped to 3.7 yards in 2021, with a slight rebound to 4.0 last year.

OT RYAN RAMCZYK

A stellar right tackle in his prime, getting him would be a Broncos dream. However, he restructured his contract last month, which means that the salary-cap benefit of moving on from him is non-existent.

Even with a post-June 1 designation, New Orleans doesn’t save any money by cutting him, per OvertheCap.com. The Saints save just over $1 million by trading him after June 1. Don’t hold your breath for Ramczyk in Denver. It’s not a realistic possibility.

QB TAYSOM HILL:

In a similar vein as Ramczyk is Hill, who also restructured his contract recently, leaving no cap savings for cutting him — even with the post-June 1 designation.

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