Four reasons why Sean Payton can succeed with the Broncos … and three reasons why it might not work out

MOBILE, Ala. — The hiring of a new head coach is a time for optimism.

And since usually those new bosses arrive because the previous year did not meet expectations, such emotion is welcomed. So, once again, a new boss takes the Broncos’ helm with fresh hopes.

But this is not a case of “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

Because with Sean Payton, there is a track record. In the first major hire of the Walton-Penner era, the Broncos’ ownership junked the club’s trend of hiring first-time head coaches, opting for the most experienced option available and willing to coach.

All three of Denver’s Super Bowl wins came with retread coaches. But no one ever won a Super Bowl in their next stop after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a previous job as head coach. Bill Parcells and Mike Holmgren came closest, taking the Patriots and Seahawks, respectively, to conference titles before losing the biggest game.

What do we think of the Sean Payton hire? @CecilLammey and I share our thoughts from just after Senior Bowl practice: pic.twitter.com/MTWwCYlP1E

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) January 31, 2023

For Payton, the equation seems clear: Win a Super Bowl in Denver, and prepare to don a gold jacket in Canton.

First, though, he most improve the team. Fortunately, most Super Bowl-winning coaches who step into new jobs do just that. And that’s where it begins for the Broncos as they step into Payton’s stewardship.

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WHY SEAN PAYTON CAN SUCCEED

SUPER BOWL-WINNING COACHES USUALLY GET QUICK RESULTS

Most Super Bowl-winning coaches generated immediate improvement in the W-L total after assuming the reins elsewhere. In 17 previous first seasons on new jobs — including three by Bill Parcells — 12 saw improvement from the previous season. Those dozen seasons saw an average improvement of 3.25 games. That would take the Broncos to eight wins. More should be expected because it is unlikely that the Broncos will endure the same massive injury rate as they did last year.

The most recent Super Bowl-winning coach to take a new NFL coaching job was Doug Pederson in Jacksonville. He improved the Jaguars by 6 full games in his first year on the job.

PAYTON’S FLOOR: 7-9

Yes, the Saints finished with that record in three consecutive seasons on Payton’s watch: 2014-16. They followed that with four consecutive playoff appearances and five-straight winning seasons before Payton decamped for the broadcast booth last year.

Since 2017, the Broncos’ best record was that mere 7-9 mark, which they hit in 2019. Their ceiling was Payton’s floor. Now, in the parlance of Michael Jordan, “The ceiling is the roof.”

THE “ALL-STAR STAFF” CAN HAPPEN IN DENVER

This is where the Walton-Penner ownership group’s largesse comes into play.

On Dec. 24, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Payton was already cobbling together an “all-star staff” to join him if he returned to coaching. That staff could include former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. Former Broncos offensive line coach Mike Munchak could also be in that mix.

Now, there is no guarantee that Payton would land every coach. But money should be no object. Coaches aren’t subject to a salary cap. And if Payton takes the opposite approach to erstwhile Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett — and emphasizes experience — that usually comes with a higher price tag. One would expect that should not be a problem.

Vic Fangio? Mike Munchak? Bringing in Sean Payton could mean a big-time, A-list coaching staff, as @CecilLammey and I discuss from Mobile for @DenverSportsCom: pic.twitter.com/hhZnZkyqUH

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) February 1, 2023

Furthermore, the still-depleted draft capital means the Broncos need quality teachers now more than other to raise the level of the young talent they can acquire.

That being said, there would be value to keeping Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator. If he remains with the Broncos for one more season and then leaves to take a head-coaching job elsewhere, the Broncos would gain two compensatory picks at the end of the third round. Denver does not get those picks if Evero departs this offseason.

HE GIVES RUSSELL WILSON A CHANCE

In New Orleans, Payton established a template for success with a shorter-than-average QB. Drew Brees played into his 40s — and he flourished to the end of his career.

When Russell Wilson speaks of playing into his 40s, Brees offers the template. Whether Wilson can make it is up to him and his skill set. Wilson is more reliant on deep shots than Brees, who is a superior rhythm-and-timing passer. But now, Wilson will work with the coach who helped make that possible.

One key will be continuing to establish the run. The best of those Saints teams had top-10 rushing attacks; five of the 14 seasons Payton and Brees worked together, the Saints had top-10 rushing attacks, and they won the NFC South each time.

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SO, WHY MIGHT THIS NOT WORK?

PAYTON MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO FIX WILSON

But one advantage of Denver becoming Payton’s place is this: The Broncos will know, once and for all, whether Wilson’s 2022 was a dip or a decline.

However, the Broncos still have their first-round pick next year. As I wrote on Jan. 19, two first-round picks was a bridge too far. But the Broncos didn’t have to cross that. And

If the Broncos have the worst record in the league and the Saints the best, the Broncos lose 464 points of draft-capital value — equivalent to roughly the No. 44 overall pick.

THE SAINTS HAD POOR CAP MANAGEMENT

As Payton’s New Orleans tenure progressed, the Saints managed their cap on a credit-card basis. No team became more proficient at pushing cap charges into the future.

But with the 2023 league year set to begin in March, the Saints are $54 million over the projected $224.8-million salary cap, with a current top-51 cap figure of $278.82 million, per OvertheCap.com.

What’s more, the Saints don’t have many obvious paths to cap compliance; the most they can gain by any single cut is $4.717 million. This leads to the conversion of salary to signing bonuses, which spreads out the hit but continues the pattern of pushing the bill down the road.

Whether it’s George Paton or another general manager, one key task will be to properly manage the cap to where the team doesn’t face the crisis that befalls the Saints on a seemingly annual basis.

PAYTON DOESN’T HAVE THE DIVISION’S BEST QB

In the NFC South, Payton had the Hall-of-Fame-bound quarterback. The Saints’ rivals all had stellar QBs for a time. Carolina’s Cam Newton and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and earned MVP honors in 2015 and 2016, respectively. In 2020, late-career Tom Brady hopped to the Buccaneers and ultimately blocked the Saints’ playoff path in the divisional round.

But for most of Payton’s time in New Orleans, he had the best QB in the division. And above all, Brees’ success is why the Saints won the NFC South seven times in Payton’s 15 seasons — 14 of which saw Brees taking snaps.

The dynamic is different in the AFC West. Kansas City has seven-straight division titles — five since Patrick Mahomes became their starter — and shows no sign of slowing down. And this doesn’t even get into the presence of Justin Herbert with the Chargers.

Payton can certainly improve Wilson. But to surpass Mahomes? That appears unlikely. Never has football been more about the QB than it is now, and the Chiefs have the all-timer … not Payton. And that means winning the division will prove more difficult than it was in the NFC South.

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