Broncos didn’t settle for Payton; they doubled down on Wilson

The Broncos went with their third choice. And that’s not a bad thing.

Likely, Jim Harbaugh was the No. 1 candidate to become the next head coach in Denver. And it seems pretty clear that DeMeco Ryans was the next in line for the job.

But when Harbaugh decided to stay at Michigan and Ryans become the head coach of the Texans, the Broncos had to move on to their next option. Thus, it’s Sean Payton time in Denver.

That said, it’s not as though Payton was the third-best option. All things being equal, he was perhaps the best candidate on the market.

His resume is certainly the most impressive. During his 15 seasons in New Orleans, Payton led the Saints to a 152-89 regular season record, reached the playoffs nine times and won a Super Bowl.

But all things weren’t equal. It took a first-round pick in 2023 and a second-round selection in 2024 to get Payton to town. Because he’s still under contract with the the Saints, that was the compensation New Orleans required in order to allow Payton to coach elsewhere.

That’s what put him behind Harbaugh and Ryans. And that makes sense.

Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s been. He turned around the 49ers and got them to a Super Bowl. So his resume is on par with Payton’s. Not having to give up picks made him more attractive.

Ryans is the rising star. He had a great defense in San Francisco. He’s a smart, engaging coach. Getting the hottest assistant in the league without having to part with draft choices made him more enticing.

That’s not a knock on Payton. If he had nothing attached to him in terms of compensation, he likely would’ve been the top choice in Denver.

Thus, the Broncos didn’t settle. They simply had to move on to a great candidate that had strings attached.

Payton is an offensive-minded head coach. He helped turn Drew Brees into a future Hall of Fame quarterback. He was part of the staff in Dallas that transformed Tony Romo from an undrafted free agent into a four-time Pro Bowl selection.

That makes him uniquely qualified to fix the mess that is the Broncos offense. More specifically, it makes him a great option for fixing Russell Wilson.

In order for this hire to be a great one, that has to happen. Denver has to get out of the doldrums offensively, somewhere they’ve been stuck since Peyton Manning retired. And they have to get a return on their investment, as Wilson fell flat during his first season in orange and blue.

If Payton accomplishes those things, the compensation given to the Saints will be well worth it. Giving up a first and a second to salvage the two ones and two twos sent to the Seahawks for Wilson will look like a bargain.

There’s certainly evidence to suggest he can. Payton’s offenses in New Orleans were light years ahead of what the Broncos put on the field in 2022.

Sean Payton's #Saints teams averaged 27.6 PPG during his 15 seasons as head coach. That's the highest PPG average for any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 40 games), per @ESPNStatsInfo
The #Broncos finished last with 16.9 PPG in 2022.

— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) January 31, 2023

That’s why Payton is here. That’s why the Broncos doubled down and traded away more draft picks. He believes he can fix Russ.

"Can Sean fix Russ? I believe the answer is yes."

— @ColinCowherd on Sean Payton – Broncos rumors pic.twitter.com/FIPWokwlVx

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) January 19, 2023

It’s more costly than Harbaugh or Ryans. Thus, it’s a bigger gamble than either of those two options.

That doesn’t make it a bad move. It doesn’t make it a mistake.

Jim Caldwell, Raheem Morris or David Shaw would’ve been settling. Sean Payton isn’t.

He’s just the most-expensive option, both in terms of money and draft picks. The Broncos have gone all-in. They’ve pushed their chips into the middle of the table.

The Broncos need to be a playoff team in 2023. If so, the trades for Wilson and Payton were successes. If not, they could set the franchise back for years.

Greg Penner and company swung for the fences. Here’s hoping they hit a home run.

***

Follow @jamesmerilatt