2021 NFL Draft Preview: Quarterback sleepers and Broncos fits

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Last year in this series, I began the quarterback preview by saying the Broncos are not in the quarterback market. Here we are a year later, and things have changed drastically for 2020 starter Drew Lock.

The Broncos tried to trade for Matthew Stafford, were interested in a few free agent quarterbacks, but have not yet found the player to compete with Lock or outright replace him for the upcoming season. Denver could get someone in the draft to be their quarterback of the future.

This player would likely compete with Lock in training camp with the eye on him being the starter at the latest in 2022. With the No. 9 overall pick, most of the top quarterbacks will be off the board. In fact, if the Broncos like one of the “Big Four” at quarterback (maybe even five), they might have to move up to secure the services of this player.

In this article, I will look at the market for the position. I’ll also write about sleepers at the quarterback position and some players who could fit what the Broncos need in the 2021 NFL Draft.

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Market Watch

I have five quarterbacks graded as first-round prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Zach Wilson (BYU), Trey Lance (North Dakota State), Justin Fields (Ohio State) and Mac Jones (Alabama) should all go on day one. I believe that the top four belong in the top-20 of this draft class, but I also recognize that they could be in the top four players selected. Jones is a late first-round pick in my eyes, but he also might be a top-10 pick just because of the heat of this market.

Jones is a player who took advantage of his opportunity to showcase his skill set at the Senior Bowl earlier this year. He is not a mobile quarterback, but he is dangerous as a passer – mainly due to his uncanny accuracy. Jones does not have a rocket arm, although it is strong enough to make most of the throws in the NFL, and in college he worked the short-to-intermediate areas of the field almost better than anyone in college football history.

It’s just one season, but Jones has shown enough to get excited about – and his drive to compete is unquestioned as evidenced by him performing in the Senior Bowl (when he didn’t have to) and his performing at two different Alabama pro days. Jones loves to compete and could be among the last in a dying breed of pocket passers in the NFL.

Even though there may be five quarterbacks selected in the first round, there might just be eight overall at the position selected through the entire draft. That means days two and three of the draft may not have that many quarterbacks called.

The next group of quarterbacks most likely to be drafted include Kyle Trask (Florida), David Mills (Standford) and Jamie Newman (Georgia). These players have skill, should be drafted, but they are all in need of more development before any team trusts them to potentially start in the pros.

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Sleepers

The sleeper quarterbacks I like in this draft class may be late-round picks or undrafted, but I feel that something is there with the right fit and proper development. There might not be a future starter in this mix, but there could be a trustworthy backup-caliber quarterback who could help a team as he further improves his game.

Ian Book from Notre Dame looks like a modern-day quarterback. His mobility is the best part of his game and he can make something happen with his legs when the play breaks down. As a passer, Book needs a lot of refinement. His accuracy and pass placement all over the field are incredibly inconsistent, and Book will often make his receivers work harder to make a catch than they need to. He might only be a backup, but Book could present some upside if he improves his footwork and accuracy.

Like Jones, I saw Feleipe Franks (Arkansas) during the week of practice at the Senior Bowl. He began his college career at Florida, but ended up transferring to Arkansas. Franks is a former high school baseball and football star who loves to sling the rock. He is big, strong and can use his legs when things break down. Franks can make off-platform throws but his timing and anticipation need to improve dramatically if he’s ever going to play up to his enormous potential.

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Broncos Fits

The Broncos need someone to push Lock for the starting job or replace him as the starter. The top-five quarterbacks in this draft could all do that eventually – and some as soon as Week 1 of the regular season.

Lawrence is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars, so he’s really out of reach for the Broncos. He’s a generational talent and the Jaguars would be fools to pass on him.

Wilson is arguably the second-best quarterback in this draft. He’s drawing some Patrick Mahomes comparisons in the pre-draft process, but that’s inaccurate and mostly from people who are now just getting up to speed about his game. Wilson is incredibly athletic and can attack a defense with his legs. He is a true threat to run at any time, but Wilson can make special throws as a passer. Wilson has no fear as a passer and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes despite this boldness. He can throw on the run and can fit passes into tight window throws down the field. Wilson does struggle with pressure, as most quarterbacks do, but he doesn’t look comfortable and can rush decisions – or make bad decisions – when under duress.

Lance is the player I believe the San Francisco 49ers moved up to No. 3 overall for. He’s strong as a runner and can run through or by defenders. Lance only played one year and one game for the Bison, but he only threw one interception – in his only game in 2020. He has a big arm and his deep touch on throws can look beautiful. Lance can be used in RPO systems because of his athleticism, but he mainly played in a pro-style system in college. This means he’s worked from under center and is familiar with making reads while dropping back. Sometimes he makes one read and runs, but that’s for the casual observer. The Bison make their reads from deep to short, so by the time Lance takes off to run he’s considered other options.

Fields has a lot to like about his game, but there are more question marks with him than some will admit. He’s a strong, mobile quarterback, but he does struggle when throwing on the run. The Buckeyes have a player-friendly offense and Fields was regularly making easy reads and easy throws to wide-open receivers. He’s got arm talent and was certainly accurate as a passer, but I feel like at times his reaction was too late. Fields needs a faster processor to make it work in the NFL. He’s smart and hardworking, so I feel that can be fixed but that is a big question mark I have about his game.

All these quarterbacks are fits for what the Broncos want to do, and all four could beat out Lock. Jones is the player that may not fit the Pat Shurmur system. Good coordinators will make it work with who they’ve got but last year with Lock, we saw Shurmur not change his plan until late in the year. Jones is a great fit for a team like the New Orleans Saints or the New England Patriots because of their offensive systems. With the Broncos, I don’t think Jones is as good of a fit as the other guys listed here.

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