The Broncos have a simple motto in 2021: Playoffs or bust

Vic Fangio will be back for a third season in Denver. Despite the Broncos taking a step backwards in 2020, either by one game or two, the head coach will return in 2021.

Whether or not that’s the right decision is debatable, with the case against another loop around the sun with Fangio at the helm has been well-chronicled, but that’s a moot point now. He’s coming back for the next installment of the epically underperforming trilogy.

Thus, the question changes. Now, it’s all about expectations next season. What does Fangio have to do in order to justify bringing him back? How far do the Broncos have to go next year for retaining the head coach to be declared the right move?

The answer to both questions is the same, and quite simple: It’s playoffs or bust in 2021.

If the Broncos don’t go at least 10-6, a record that would almost assure them a playoff spot in the NFL’s expanded postseason, then 2021 will have proven to be an utter failure. It’ll go down as another wasted season, an exercise in futility.

To prove this point, simply look at the alternatives.

If Denver once again loses 10-plus games next season, that would obviously be a disaster. Letting Fangio guide them to 29 or more losses in three years will have been a horrendous error in judgment on the part of the front office.

Clearly, Fangio would be let go in that instance. But they’ll have have delayed the process of finding the right head coach by a year, wasting valuable time.

If the Broncos improve upon this year’s record, but fail to make the postseason, that will also be troublesome. Going 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 puts them in NFL purgatory; they won’t be a playoff team, but they also won’t earn a high draft pick.

This will put Fangio in limbo. He’ll be a no man’s land, putting the organization in a tough spot. Do they retain a coach who hasn’t made the playoffs in three years? Or do they move on from one who improves by one, two or three games from the previous season? That’s a tough call; it certainly won’t be an easy one to make.

There’s always the chance that Denver misses the playoffs with 10 wins. They could also win eight or nine with a few heartbreakers included. Not all losses are the same.

Of course, allowing that to be “good enough” sends a tricky message. It’s allowing for mediocrity. It’s providing Fangio with another set of excuses, even though he’s used them all up in 2020 with COVID-19, injuries, a young offense and a litany of others.

Keeping Fangio after 2021 would most likely require a contract extension. It’s rare that a head coach goes into the final year of his contract. It makes them a “lame duck,” creating a constant stream of questions throughout the season about the future.

So would the Broncos pull the plug on slight progress? Would they double down on a coach who hadn’t made the playoffs in his first three seasons? There aren’t easy answers.

That’s why it has to be the playoffs or bust in 2021. Getting into the postseason, which isn’t a huge stretch when seven out of 16 teams in the AFC earn a berth, has to be the bar.

If the Broncos don’t reach that goal next season, keeping Vic Fangio will have proven to be a mistake. If they do, it will unquestionably have been the right decision.

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