Since his first four starts, Bo Nix is the most-improved QB in nearly 20 years

Bo Nix has transformed himself from his first month as the Denver Broncos’ starting quarterback to where he stands today as the Broncos enjoy a bye week in prime position to snap their 8-season playoff drought, and the numbers back that up — and show that it’s been nearly two decades since a young quarterback improved so much from his first four games.

That’s where the bye-week look at the numbers begins:

37.3

Passer-rating points by which Bo Nix has improved from his first four starts — when he posted a 62.5 rating — to his following nine starts, during which he logged a 99.8 passer rating.

This makes Nix the most-improved quarterback from his first four starts to his next nine starts since Alex Smith during the 2005 and 2006 seasons. That covers a span of 105 quarterbacks heading into this weekend, starting with Cleveland’s Charlie Frye and going up to Nix and Washington rookie Jayden Daniels.

In that span, 59 of 105 quarterbacks improved their rating from their first four starts to their next nine.

That being said, significant improvement doesn’t assure anything. Nix is the 12th quarterback to improve his passer rating by more than 20.0 points from his first four starts to the next nine. The others represent a mixed bag — with some long-range successes, but other forgettable names>

• Russell Wilson: plus-30.7 rating points
• Tarvaris Jackson: plus-30.6 rating points
• Matt Ryan: plus-29.9 rating points
• Ryan Fitzpatrick: plus-29.7 rating points
• Baker Mayfield: plus-27.7 rating points
• Joe Flacco: plus-27.7 rating points
• Nick Foles: plus-27.4 rating points
• Aidan O’Connell: plus-24.5 rating points
• Teddy Bridgewater: plus-22.7 rating points
• Mac Jones: plus-21.1 rating points
• Jameis Winston: plus-21.1 rating points

Certainly, Mac Jones stands out as a recent cautionary tale for Bo Nix. But Wilson, Ryan, Mayfield and Flacco all ended up becoming successful long-range starters and earning massive subsequent contracts — although Mayfield’s came elsewhere, with Tampa Bay.

78.3

Percentage of teams since 1978 that were 8-5 after 13 games with a point-differential of plus-5.0 points per game or better that finished in what would be the current playoff positions.

It’s 90.0 percent in the last 10 years. The only team in that span that would have missed the playoffs under the current format despite being 8-5 with that level of point differential was the 2020 Miami Dolphins, who finished 10-6.

15-9

That is the Broncos’ record in their last 24 games.

In their previous 24 games — which encompassed the end of Vic Fangio’s tenure, the 15 games of Nathaniel Hackett, two games with Jerry Rosburg and six to open Sean Payton’s stewardship, the Broncos went 6-18.

Their improvement in win rate over those 24-game spans — from .250 to .625 — is the highest in the NFL.

 

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