Even in training camp, Broncos knew Bo Nix could be ‘pretty special’

Bo Nix delivered on the promise in his first regular season as the Denver Broncos’ starting quarterback. QB6 in last year’s passer-rich first round became no lower than QB2 among the crop by any reasonable overall standard — including EPA/play, where he was one of just two eligible rookie passers with a positive number, along with Washington’s Jayden Daniels.

After throwing four interceptions in the first two games, he had just 8 in the remainder of the season. His fumble rate was low. Nix appeared to learn one of the first maxims every NFL player must learn: that before you can win at this level, you must first learn how not to lose. His rapid absorption and application of this lesson — in all of its various technical and cerebral manifestations — is a massive reason why the Broncos’ eight-year absence from the playoffs officially ended Sunday afternoon.

But even before his regular-season debut, he’d won over teammates.

Right tackle Mike McGlinchey, for one, recalls knowing Nix was “the guy” during training camp.

“I think we all came out of training camp knowing that this guy was going to be pretty special,” McGlinchey said. “And it was moments of, ‘Hey, you threw a pick at practice’ or did something at practice that he didn’t like and made sure it was corrected for the next time he did it.”

“Bo is a very, very prideful guy. He’s very proud to be the quarterback of our team. And with that comes a great responsibility of being on task, being the guy that can’t make the mistakes.”

One day in particular stood out to McGlinchey: the joint practice against the Packers, which Nix capped with a stellar performance in the two-minute drill period.

“Maybe it could be that couple days against Green Bay where you’re competing against live bullets — relatively live bullets — and you go down the two-minute drill a couple of times, and you’re like, ‘OK, this kid’s got something special, and he’s made of the right stuff, the ability will just keep coming as he keeps learning how to do [it],'” McGlinchey said.

“And the thing that you love about Bo is who he is, and it gives you so much confidence in what he’s going to become.”

And one area in which it manifested was sack rate, which is the first of this week’s three numbers:

1 every 24.7 pass plays

That was the rate at which Nix was brought down this year, placing him sixth in the NFL among 37 quarterbacks with at least 250 pass plays this season.

Of course, this is in marked contrast to the previous two years. Nix’s predecessor, Russell Wilson, ranked 27th among 33 quarterbacks in the same category in 2023 and 32nd of 33 in 2022.

Nix also has the fourth-best ball-loss rate among 93 rookie quarterbacks all-time with at least 300 total touches as a rookie. Nix had a fumble or a sack once every 45.6 touches, trailing only Washington’s Jayden Daniels this year, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 and Detroit’s Charlie Batch in 1998.

9

Number of rookie quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era — as of next Sunday — who have started every game and ended their campaigns in the postseason. Nix will become the eighth such quarterback in that group. Daniels becomes the ninth later Sunday when he starts for the Commanders in their wild-card game at Tampa Bay.

The other quarterbacks on the list:

Matt Ryan, Atlanta, 2008
Joe Flacco, Baltimore, 2008
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati, 2011
Russell Wilson, Seattle, 2012
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis, 2012
Dak Prescott, Dallas, 2016
Mac Jones, New England, 2021

Six of the previous seven would earn contract extensions with their original clubs and have runs as those teams’ he primary starting quarterback that lasted last least seven seasons. Jones, now with Jacksonville, is the exception.

But this offers a hint that both Denver and Washington could likely see their long-spinning QB carousels grind to a halt for the next several years.

1-7

That is the record of No. 7 seeds in the wild-card round since the NFL expanded its postseason field to seven teams from each conference for the 2021 season.

Last year, the Green Bay Packers became the first No. 7 seed to win, defeating Dallas 48-32 before falling at San Francisco the following weekend.

Of the seven times that seventh seeds fell in the opening round, five of the defeats came by double digits. Even when accounting for the Packers’ win last year, the average margin in these games is minus-8.9 points against the lower seed.

But the closest 2-vs.-7 games both involved the Bills, who squeaked past the Philip Rivers-led Indianapolis Colts 27-24 four years ago, and had a white-knuckle 34-31 win over the Miami Dolphins — then down to No. 3 quarterback Skylar Thompson — two seasons later. Thompson struggled, but Miami stayed in it thanks to 3 takeaways — one of which was returned for a score — and 13 points scored on drives that began in Buffalo territory.