Bookies set Broncos as big underdogs for playoff battle in Buffalo

To no surprise, the Denver Broncos are massive underdogs for their road playoff game against the Buffalo Bills, as oddsmakers believe the home team will win by multiple possessions.

The Broncos and Bills will meet next Sunday, Jan. 12, the NFL announced this news a few hours after Denver clinched the seventh and final seed in the AFC. The 38-0 win over Kansas City punched the Broncos ticket to the postseason at 10-7, ending a nine-year drought that dates back to the team’s last Super Bowl win to finish off the 2015 season. It’s been a heck of a turnaround for Sean Payton, who in two years has legitimized the orange and blue once again. This season quarterback Bo Nix absolutely showed out in his rookie year and was backed by one of the best defenses in football.

Meanwhile, the Bills have made the playoffs in five straight seasons and six of the last seven. Their current streak is largely thanks to former Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen who has a shot at winning the NFL’s MVP Award. Allen led Buffalo to a 13-4 season, with the team losing a meaningless game to the Patriots 23-16 on Sunday. Buffalo chased the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC but fell short. Speaking of falling short, the Bills have lost in the divisional round of the playoffs the last three seasons after going down in the conference championship game back in 2020. But this year Buffalo has looked better than in the past, scoring the second-most points in the NFL while being way better with ball security and forcing more turnovers on defense.

The Bills better record, earning the second seed and home-field advantage for the game, lengthy recent playoff resume and star quarterback against a rookie one are all likely factors as to why they’re such big favorites. The line for the game opened between -7.5 and -8.5 for the Bills depending on where you shop and most books now have Buffalo favored at -9.5. The current total of about 44.5 plus the line means bookies think the final score will favor the Bills with a 27-18 victory.

The teams have only met once in the postseason, which also came on Jan. 12, all the way back in 1992. On that day, they fought for the AFC Championship at what is now Highmark Stadium. Tied at halftime, the third quarter finally saw the scoreboard flash when linebacker Carlton Bailey stole a John Elway screen pass and took it 11 yards to the house for the game’s first touchdown. The teams traded scores in the fourth quarter as the Bills went on to Super Bowl XXVI thanks to the 10-7 win.

All-time the Bills are 23-17-1 against the Broncos in all games, though they’re an even better 3-1 against Denver since Sean McDermott took the head coaching gig in 2017. But that one win came in November of 2023, when the underdog went to Buffalo and upset the Bills 24-22.