Big 12 explains how CU Buffs could still make Championship Game

Nine of the 16 programs in the Big 12 are still alive to play in the conference’s Championship Game going into the final weekend of the regular season. The Colorado Buffaloes are among the group vying for bid but the team “fumbled their chance” with a loss to Kansas and no longer control their own destiny. Fans of the black and gold won’t just be rooting for a winner in Boulder on Friday, they’ll have a wide-ranging set of interests both in the conference and across the country.

As it stands now, Colorado is one of four teams tied at 6-2 in Big 12 play, with another five teams just behind that group at 5-3. Because a lot of the conference’s large size, the Buffaloes didn’t actually play any of the teams they’re tied with meaning secondary and tertiary tiebreakers were used to determine the team as actually fourth in the live table.

Big 12 Standings

Arizona State: 6-2
BYU: 6-2
Iowa State: 6-2
Colorado: 6-2
Kansas State: 6-2
Baylor: 5-3
TCU: 5-3
Texas Tech: 5-3
West Virginia: 5-3
Kansas: 4-4
Cincinnati: 3-5
Houston: 3-5
Arizona: 2-6
UCF: 2-6
Utah: 1-7
Oklahoma State: 0-8

Important Big 12 games in the final weekend:

Friday, Nov. 29
Oklahoma State at Colorado — 10 a.m.
Saturday, Nov. 30
West Virginia at Texas Tech — 10 a.m.
Kansas at Baylor — 10 a.m.
Arizona State at Arizona —1:30 p.m.
TCU at Cincinnati — 4 p.m.
Kansas State at Iowa State — 5:30 p.m
Houston at BYU — 8:15 p.m.

What Colorado needs to play in the title

First off, Colorado needs to win to have a chance to play in Dallas. Also the Buffaloes are going to need some help past that. The easiest path for CU is that the Buffs to win while all of the Sun Devils, Cougars and Cyclones lose. That could secure CU’s sole possession of first place. Additionally, CU would secure a berth with a win and a loss by two of those three teams resulting in a two-team tie atop the conference.

Then it gets complicated. And the Big 12 hasn’t even figured out what would happen in the strange scenario where eight teams are tied at 6-3. But this is what the conference says entering Week 14 for ties among teams with 7-2 Big 12 records.

Any path where Colorado wins and makes the title game is in bold:

• Two-team tie scenarios:
  • The two tied teams at 7-2 will be the Championship game participants.

• Three-team tie scenarios:
  • Colorado loss: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
  • Arizona State loss: Iowa State vs. BYU
  • Iowa State loss: Arizona State vs. BYU
  • BYU loss:
    • If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
      • If Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State
      • Otherwise: Colorado vs. Arizona State
    • If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State

• Four-team tie scenario:
  • • • Arizona State vs. Iowa State

Who should Buffs fans root for?

First off CU winning is paramount so cheer hard in Boulder on Friday.

Second, Colorado fans should be rooting against the Sun Devils, Cougars and Cyclones—hoping at least two of them lose.

If you need to know where to focus your energy, the second-biggest game for Colorado this weekend is in Provo. The most pathways for CU to get to Dallas involve a BYU loss to Houston.

If BYU somehow loses at home to Houston, who has little to play for, then Colorado will also want the Red Raiders to take down the Mountaineers. In the case where Colorado is tied with Arizona State and BYU at 7-3, the team’s fate comes down to the Red Raiders and Mountaineers.

Of course, we’ll know most of what Colorado needs by the time the Cougars kick, since it is the final game of the weekend.

The most likely scenario for the Buffaloes making the Big 12 Championship involves them beating a 3-8 Oklahoma State group. Then the Duel in the Desert goes to the Wildcats who are only playing for pride and against their biggest rivals. A few hours later Kansas State pulls off the upset of Iowa State in Farmageddon. This situation is the most likely path because of the rivalry stakes involved and unlike all other scenarios, it is not dependent on BYU losing at home to a poor Houston team.

Around the country

Colorado will need to make and win the Big 12 Championship for any hope at the College Football Playoff and even then the Buffaloes may still need some help. CU fans should be rooting for basically any ranked team to go down, especially if they’re in the No. 5 to No. 18 range. Not only will the losses help, but anything to weaken the prestige of the coming conference championship games elsewhere is now needed. With only two matchups of AP Top 25 teams this weekend, the upset hopes are thin but if anyone does go down it would inflict a lot of damage. And as for one of those two ranked matchups, Buffs fans should probably root for South Carolina to beat Clemson, tagging each program with three losses.