Broncos found the formula to beat Chiefs last year; can they replicate it?

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Denver Broncos found the road map to defeating the Kansas City Chiefs last year.

They pressured Patrick Mahomes, extracting 3 turnovers from the two-time MVP and 3-time Super Bowl MVP as part of a 5-takeaway day overall. That was element No. 1. They held onto the football, grinding out possessions and bleeding the clock dry with frequent — if unspectacular — runs that extended drives. That was element No. 2.

“We took a really aggressive game plan on defense and got the ball turned over … five times and we were able to run the ball really well and stay on the field,” right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “And that’s the recipe to success, to beat a great team.”

That’s the formula to beating a Kansas City side that is in its imperial phase. And after 16-consecutive losses from November 2015 through October of last year, the Broncos now have a form of muscle memory when they face the back-to-back Lombardi-winning leviathan from near the Missouri-Kansas border.

For the first time since November 2015, the Broncos face the Chiefs with players on their roster who have defeated Kansas City while wearing a Broncos uniform.

“Like last year, we were very [much], ‘We haven’t beat ’em in so long,'” tight end Adam Trautman said. “[This year,] we’re confident that we can do it because we’ve done it before.”

 

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But it likely requires doing what the Broncos did last October.

5-9

That is Kansas City’s record when possessing the football for 25 minutes or fewer during games started by Mahomes. The Broncos didn’t quite reach this in last year’s win, accumulating 33 minutes, 47 seconds of possession to the Chiefs’ 26:13. In Mahomes’ starts, Kansas City is 18-12 when holding on to the ball for fewer than 27 minutes, compared with 79-13 otherwise.

Meanwhile, if you let the Chiefs win the time-of-possession battle in Mahomes’ starts, they’re 58-6.

86-15

The Chiefs’ record in games when Mahomes accounts for one or zero giveaways — either via interception or a lost fumble. This would translate to a record of 14.4 wins and 2.6 losses per 17 games. But when Mahomes has two or more giveaways, the Chiefs are barely a .500 team, going 11-10.

Also, note Kansas City’s record in the Mahomes era for these statistical mileposts:

• 36-1 when Mahomes’ passer rating is at least 120.0 (61-24 otherwise).
• 55-5 when Mahomes completes more than two-thirds of his passes (42-20 otherwise).
• 52-1 when the Chiefs run on at least 41 percent of their offensive snaps (45-24 otherwise).
• 7-13 when the opponent runs on at least 50 percent of its snaps (90-12 otherwise).
• 43-3 when winning in turnover margin and 74-9 when it’s even or better (23-16 when the opponent wins in turnover margin).

2-13

The record of teams with rookie starting quarterbacks against Kansas City since Andy Reid took the Chiefs’ reins in 2013. And in games when the Chiefs had something on the line, that mark is 1-13, as one of the two wins came by a Chargers side led by then-rookie Justin Herbert in Week 17 of the 2020 season, when Kansas City had its No. 1 seed clinched.

But the one win for a team led by a rookie quarterback against the Reid-led Chiefs was also the most recent game they played against a rookie starter: last Christmas, when the Raiders gave Kansas City a 20-14 defeat with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Of course, O’Connell was a modest 9-of-21 for 62 yards; Las Vegas’ main thrust came via a pair of defensive touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage in the second quarter.