What are the Broncos odds of a postseason berth at Week 14?
Dec 8, 2021, 6:20 AM | Updated: 6:47 am
As the NFL season slips into Week 14, there are no scenarios yet for any team in the AFC to clinch a postseason berth.
And while the naysayers among Broncos Country might scoff at the prospects of a Denver playoff run after a 22-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, technically the Broncos are still right in the hunt.
Even the organization, according to 9News Broncos Insider Mike Klis, had to send notice to season ticket holders this week about upcoming playoff offerings.
Per Klis, the notice read:
“It is NFL policy to notify Season Ticket Members of potential home playoff appearances when a team is first in its division or three games or fewer from the division lead with a .500 record or better. While the Denver Broncos are currently competing with several other AFC teams for a postseason appearance, determination of playoff eligibility may not be finalized until Week 18 of the NFL regular season. There is no action needed on your part as you have already opted-in to receive postseason tickets and parking.”
Sure, the Broncos chances of securing a playoff spot dipped to 17 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, and 22 percent, per the New York Times, after Denver’s loss in Arrowhead.
But with half of their AFC West slate still ahead of them and two winnable games ahead — at home against the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals in Weeks 14 and 15 — the Broncos largely still control their own destiny.
With wins over the next two weeks, Denver’s odds of earning a postseason berth jump to 31 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. That figure looks more like 38 percent according to New York Times simulations.
And if Denver can string together three straight wins, including on the road in Week 16 against the Las Vegas Raiders, their playoff odds climb to near or above 50 percent.
All that’s left from that point is a likely AFC West-determining set of games in Week 17 against the Chargers in Los Angeles and at home against the Chiefs in the season finale.
